%0 Journal Article
%@holdercode {isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S}
%@nexthigherunit 8JMKD3MGPCW/3EU29DP
%@archivingpolicy denypublisher denyfinaldraft12
%@usergroup administrator
%@usergroup simone
%3 prediction of solar.pdf
%2 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m17@80/2008/06.05.18.44.01
%4 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m17@80/2008/06.05.18.43
%X If the rise time RT, fall time FT, and total time TT (i.e., RT + FT) of a solar cycle are compared against the maximum amplitude Rz(max) for the following cycle, then only the association between TT and Rz(max) is inferred to be well anticorrelated, inferring that the larger (smaller) the value of Rz(max) for the following cycle, the shorter (longer) the TT of the preceding cycle. Although the inferred correlation (-0.68) is statistically significant, the inferred standard error of estimate is quite large, so predictions using the inferred correlation are not very precise. Removal of cycle pairs 15/16, 19/20, and 20/21 (statistical outliers) yields a regression that is highly statistically significant (-0.85) and reduces the standard error of estimate by 18%. On the basis of the adjusted regression and presuming TT=140 months for cycle 23, the present ongoing cycle, cycle 24's 90% prediction interval for Rz(max) is estimated to be about 94 +/- 44, inferring only a 5% probability that its Rz(max) will be larger than about 140, unless of course cycle pair 23/24 is a statistical outlier.
%8 Mar.
%N 1
%T Prediction of Solar Cycle Maximum Using Solar Cycle Lengths
%@secondarytype PRE PI
%K SUNSPOT CYCLE.
%@group DGE-CEA-INPE-MCT-BR
%@secondarykey INPE--PRE/
%@issn 0038-0938
%@issn 1573-093X
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
%B Solar Physics
%P 203-209
%D 2008
%V 248
%@doi 10.1007/s11207-008-9125-8
%A Kane, Rajaram Purushotam,
%@dissemination WEBSCI; PORTALCAPES.
%@area CEA