%0 Conference Proceedings
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%@holdercode {isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S}
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%@resumeid 8JMKD3MGP5W/3C9JHST
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%3 2008_cbmet_blain1.pdf
%B Congresso Brasileiro de Meteorologia, 15.
%X RESUMO: A precipitação pluvial (PRE) é a principal fonte de água para a agricultura. Dessa forma, o trabalho avaliou, por meio do teste da razão da verossimilhança, a variabilidade dos parâmetros da distribuição gama (calculados com base na série mensal de PRE de Campinas), entre os anos de 1890 a 2006, considerando espaços amostrais de diferentes tamanhos: 1890 a 1918, 1919 a 1947, 1948 a 1976 e 1977 a 2005; 1890 a 1928, 1929 a 1967 e 1968 a 2006; 1890 a 1947 e 1948 a 2005. A observação, em alguns meses de alterações significativas, indica grande variabilidade amostral dos parâmetros dessa distribuição paramétrica, acarretando em elevado grau de incerteza em caracterizações climáticas do regime de PRE na região de Campinas-SP. As análises não indicaram influências das atividades humanas no ritmo das PRE da localidade em estudo. ABSTRACT: SAMPLE VARIABILITY OF THE MONTHLY PRECIPITATION SERIES IN THE REGION OF CAMPINAS, SÃO PAULO STATE  BRAZIL (1890 to 2006) The rainfall is the main water source for the agriculture. Using the likelihood ratio test, the work evaluated the gamma parameters (fitted to the monthly precipitation series of the region of Campinas, São Paulo State-Brazil) sample variability from 1890 to 2006. The parameters variability was analyzed considering different length samples: 1890 to 1918, 1919 to 1947, 1948 to 1976 and 1977 to 2005; 1890 to 1928, 1929 to 1967 and 1968 to 2006; 1890 to 1947 and 1948 to 2005. The results indicate great variability of the gamma distribution parameters among the analyzed periods, which increases the uncertainty degree of the monthly rainfall climate characterization in the region of Campinas. The investigation carried out, did not indicate human activity influences in the rhythm of the monthly precipitation in the analyzed region. The rainfall is the main water source for the agriculture. Using the likelihood ratio test, the work evaluated the gamma parameters (fitted to the monthly precipitation series of the region of Campinas, São Paulo State-Brazil) sample variability from 1890 to 2006. The parameters variability was analyzed considering different length samples: 1890 to 1918, 1919 to 1947, 1948 to 1976 and 1977 to 2005; 1890 to 1928, 1929 to 1967 and 1968 to 2006; 1890 to 1947 and 1948 to 2005. The results indicate great variability of the gamma distribution parameters among the analyzed periods, which increases the uncertainty degree of the monthly rainfall climate characterization in the region of Campinas. The investigation carried out, did not indicate human activity influences in the rhythm of the monthly precipitation in the analyzed region.
%@secondarydate 20080825
%T Variabilidade amostral das séries mensais de precipitação pluvial na região de Campinas, São Paulo, Brasil (1890-2006)
%@format On-line
%@tertiarytype Artigo
%@secondarytype PRE CN
%K teste da razão da verossimilhança, parâmetros da distribuição gama, likelihood ratio test, gamma distribution parameters.
%8 25-29 ago
%@visibility shown
%@group
%@group DMD-CPT-INPE-MCT-BR
%@e-mailaddress deicy@cptec.inpe.br
%@secondarykey INPE-15285-PRE/10100
%@copyholder SID/SCD
%2 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m17@80/2008/05.13.17.18.09
%@affiliation Instituto Agronômico de Campinas (IAC/APTA/SAA), Campinas - SP, Bra.
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE/CPTEC)
%@affiliation Escola Superior de Agricultura “Luiz de Queiroz”/USP, Piracicaba, SP, Bra
%@affiliation Escola Superior de Agricultura “Luiz de Queiroz”/USP, Piracicaba, SP, Bra
%4 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m17@80/2008/05.13.17.18
%D 2008
%1 SBMET
%A Blain, Gabriel Constantino,
%A Kayano,  Mary Toshie,
%A Sentelhas, Paulo Cesar,
%A Lulu, Jorge,
%C São Paulo
%@area MET