%0 Journal Article
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%@holdercode {isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S}
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%3 Coelho.Bayesian.pdf
%X This study addresses three issues: spatial downscaling, calibration, and combination of seasonal predictions produced by different coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. It examines the feasibility of using a Bayesian procedure for producing combined, well-calibrated downscaled seasonal rainfall forecasts for two regions in South America and river flow forecasts for the Paran´a river in the south of Brazil and the Tocantins river in the north of Brazil. These forecasts are important for national electricity generation management and planning. A Bayesian procedure, referred to here as forecast assimilation, is used to combine and calibrate the rainfall predictions produced by three climate models. Forecast assimilation is able to improve the skill of 3-month lead November-December-January multi-model rainfall predictions over the two South American regions. Improvements are noted in forecast seasonal mean values and uncertainty estimates. River flow forecasts are less skilful than rainfall forecasts. This is partially because natural river flow is a derived quantity that is sensitive to hydrological as well as meteorological processes, and to human intervention in the form of reservoir management.
%8 Mar.
%N 01
%@secondarydate 200510
%T A bayesian approach for multi-model downscaling: seasonal forecasting of regional rainfall and river flows in south America
%@electronicmailaddress caio@cptec.inpe.br
%@secondarytype PRE PI
%K multi-model downscaling, regional rainfall, river flow, south America, bayesian approach, seasonal forecasting.
%@visibility shown
%@group DOP-INPE-MCT-BR
%@e-mailaddress atus@cptec.inpe.br
%@secondarykey INPE-14522-PRE/9553
%@copyholder SID/SCD
%U http://journals.cambridge.org
%@issn 1350-4827
%2 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m17@80/2006/11.27.13.36.49
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
%@affiliation Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate
%@affiliation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
%@affiliation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
%@affiliation Instituto Tecnológico SIMEPAR, Centro Politécnico da UFPR
%@affiliation Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute
%B Meteorological Applications
%P 73-82
%4 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m17@80/2006/11.27.13.36
%D 2006
%V 13
%@doi 10.1017/S1350482705002045
%A Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos,
%A Stephenson, David B.,
%A Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.,
%A Balmaseda, Magdalena,
%A Guetter, A.,
%A Oldenborgh, G. J.,
%@dissemination WEBSCI; PORTALCAPES; MGA.
%@area MET