%0 Journal Article
%@nexthigherunit 8JMKD3MGPCW/43SKC35
%@nexthigherunit 8JMKD3MGPCW/43SQKNE
%@nexthigherunit 8JMKD3MGPCW/46JKC45
%@holdercode {isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S}
%@resumeid 8JMKD3MGP5W/3C9JHDE
%@resumeid 8JMKD3MGP5W/3C9JHM8
%@usergroup administrator
%@usergroup fabia
%3 iracema.htm
%B Experimental  Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin
%@secondarykey INPE-11883-PRE/7230
%A Cavalcanti, Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque,
%A Pezzi, Luciano Ponzi,
%A Marengo, Jose Antonio,
%A Sampaio, Gilvan,
%A Sanches, Marcos Barbosa,
%T Climate Prediction of precipitation over South America for DJF 1998/99 and MAM 1999
%8 dec.
%D 1998
%V 7
%N 4
%P 24-27
%2 cptec.inpe.br/walmeida/2004/12.21.13.33.14
%4 cptec.inpe.br/walmeida/2004/12.21.13.33
%X Monthly to seasonal dynamical atmospheric predictions at CPTEC have been performed since January 1995. The model used for these predictions is the CPTEC version of the COLA AGCM which was derived from the NCEP model (Kinter et al., 1988) and includes a sophisticated biosphere model (Xue et al., 1991). The horizontal resolution of the AGCM is T62 and there are 28 levels in the vertical (L28; Cavalcanti et al., 1995). Predictions for the rainy season of Nordeste (Northeast of Brazil) in 1995 were discussed in Nobre et al. (1995), and those for 1996, in Nobre and Cavalcanti (1996). Results from simulations (with a T42 L18) version of the model of the Nordeste rainy season of 1993 and 1994 using observed monthly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) as boundary conditions compared well with observed values of precipitation, and with NCEP reanalyses data (Cavalcanti et al., 1996). Precipitation anomalies in Nordeste (area averaged, 20S-120S; 450W-350W) from an 11 year simulation (1986 to 1996), using the T42L18 model reproduces much of the interannual variability in this region. (Cavalcanti et al., 1998). The forecast of the February-May 1998 rainy season in Nordeste was quite good.
%U http://grads.iges.org/ellfb/Dec98/iracema.htm
%@language English
%@copyholder SID/SCD
%@e-mailaddress atus@cptec.inpe.br
%@secondarytype PRE PI
%@area MET
%@group DMD-INPE-MCT-BR
%@group DMD-INPE-MCT-BR
%@group DMD-INPE-MCT-BR
%@group DMA-INPE-MCT-BR
%@group DOP-INPE-MCT-BR
%@affiliation CPTEC-INPE-Cachoeira Paulista-12630-000-SP-Brasil