%0 Journal Article
%@holdercode {isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S}
%@nexthigherunit 8JMKD3MGPCW/3EUPEJL
%@nexthigherunit 8JMKD3MGPCW/43SKC35
%@resumeid
%@resumeid 8JMKD3MGP5W/3C9JHDE
%@usergroup administrator
%3 helio.htm
%@secondarykey INPE-10657-PRE/6119
%A Marengo, José Antonio,
%A Cavalcanti, Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque,
%A Camargo, Helio,
%T Rainfall Prediction for Northeast Brazil during MAM and AMJ 2003
%B Experimental  Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin
%8 mar
%D 2003
%V 12
%N 1-2
%2 cptec.inpe.br/walmeida/2004/04.28.13.42.11
%4 cptec.inpe.br/walmeida/2004/04.28.13.42
%K rainfall prediction.
%X The forecasts for MAM and AMJ 2003 show that the Northeast Brazil region will experience rainfall above the normal, due to a southward migration of the ITCZ and he intensification of the meridional SST gradient in the tropical Atlantic.  The fact that El Niño has weakened and almost dissapeared has also contributed to this situation.  We analyze the fact that the updated forecasts for MAM and AMJ 2003 run with SST anomalies of February show above the normal rainfall, while the same seasons showed defficient rainfall when the model was run when SST anomalies of December 2003 or January 2003.  CPTEC, IRI, ECMWF, UKMet Office, and Hadley Centre have been issuing at the beginning of 2003 forecassts that called for drought conditions on the region,  and the changes in the oceanic and atmopsheric fields from January 2003 to February 2003 have motivated this reversal on the rainfall forecast for the region.
%U http://grads.iges.org/ellfb/Mar03/helio/helio.htm
%@language English
%@copyholder SID/SCD
%@e-mailaddress fabia@cptec.inpe.br
%@secondarytype PRE PI
%@area MET
%@group DMD-INPE-MCT-BR
%@group CPT-INPE-MCT-BR
%@group CPT-INPE-MCT-BR
%@affiliation CPTEC-INPE-Cachoeira Paulista-12630-000-SP-Brazil