%0 Journal Article
%@nexthigherunit 8JMKD3MGPCW/46JKC45
%@holdercode {isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S}
%@archivingpolicy denypublisher denyfinaldraft
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%@resumeid
%@resumeid 8JMKD3MGP5W/3C9JGQ7
%X Fires are major disturbances for ecosystems in Amazonia. They affect vegetation succession, alter nutrients and carbon cycling, and modify the composition of the atmosphere. Fires in this region are strongly related to land-use, land-cover and climate conditions. Because these factors are all expected to change in the future, it is reasonable to expect that fire activity will also change. Models are needed to quantitatively estimate the magnitude of these potential changes. Here we present a new fire model developed by relating satellite information on fires to corresponding statistics on climate, land-use and land-cover. The model is first shown to reproduce the main contemporary large-scale features of fire patterns in Amazonia. To estimate potential changes in fire activity in the future, we then applied the model to two alternative scenarios of development of the region. We find that in both scenarios, substantial changes in the frequency and spatial patterns of fires are expected unless steps are taken to mitigate fire activity.
%8 May
%N 5
%T Projecting future fire activity in Amazonia
%@secondarytype PRE PI
%K Brazilian Amazon, nutrient pools , climate change, vegetation distribution,  atmospheric.
%@usergroup Deicy
%@usergroup administrator
%@group
%@group
%@group
%@group DMA-INPE-MCT-BR
%@e-mailaddress deicy@cptec.inpe.br
%3 Cardoso_2003_GCB.pdf
%@secondarykey INPE-9990-PRE/5550
%@copyholder SID/SCD
%@issn 1354-1013
%2 cptec.inpe.br/walmeida/2003/06.24.14.41.58
%@affiliation Univ New Hampshire, Inst Study Earth Oceans & Space, Durham, NH, USA
%@affiliation Univ New Hampshire, Inst Study Earth Oceans & Space, Durham, NH, USA
%@affiliation Univ New Hampshire, Dept Nat Resources, Durham, NH 03824 USA
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais(INPE/CPTEC)
%@affiliation Univ Wisconsin, NOAA, NESDIS, ORA Adv Satellite Prod Team, Madison, WI 53706 USA
%B Global Change Biology
%@versiontype publisher
%P 656-669
%4 cptec.inpe.br/walmeida/2003/06.24.14.41
%@documentstage not transferred
%D 2003
%V 9
%A Cardoso, Manoel Ferreira,
%A Hurtt, G. C.,
%A Moore, B.,
%A Nobre, Carlos Afonso,
%A Prins, E. M.,
%@dissemination WEBSCI; PORTALCAPES; MGA.
%@area MET