| 1. Identificação | |
| Tipo de Referência | Artigo em Revista Científica (Journal Article) |
| Código do Detentor | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S |
| Site | mtc-m16b.sid.inpe.br (namespace prefix: upn:K28A8B) |
| Identificador | 6qtX3pFwXQZGivnK2Y/NhzTK |
| Repositório | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m17@80/2006/11.27.13.03 |
| Última Atualização | 2006:11.27.13.03.05 (UTC) administrator |
| Repositório de Metadados | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m17@80/2006/11.27.13.03.06 |
| Última Atualização dos Metadados | 2021:02.10.19.21.41 (UTC) administrator |
| Chave Secundária | INPE-14524-PRE/9555 |
| ISSN | 0894-8755 |
| Chave de Citação | CoelhoSteBalDobOld:2006:ToInSe |
| Título | Toward an integrated seasonal forecasting system for south America  |
| Ano | 2006 |
| Mês | Aug. |
| Data de Acesso | 24 ago. 2026 |
| Tipo Secundário | PRE PI |
| Número de Arquivos | 1 |
| Tamanho | 2032 KiB |
| 2. Contextualização | |
| Autor | 1 Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos 2 Stephenson, David B. 3 Balmaseda, M. 4 Doblas-Reyes, F. J. 5 Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van |
| Grupo | 1 DOP-INPE-MCT-BR |
| Afiliação | 1 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC) 2 Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate 3 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 4 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 5 Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute (KNMI) |
| Endereço de e-Mail do Autor | 1 caio@cptec.inpe.br |
| Endereço de e-Mail | atus@cptec.inpe.br |
| Revista | Journal of Climate |
| Volume | 19 |
| Número | 15 |
| Páginas | 3704-3721 |
| Acervo Hospedeiro | lcp.inpe.br/ignes/2004/02.12.18.39 upn:LNRMAL cptec.inpe.br/walmeida/2003/04.25.17.12 upn:K28A8B |
| Histórico (UTC) | 2007-01-08 16:52:32 :: estagiario -> administrator :: 2008-06-29 02:28:39 :: administrator -> estagiario :: 2010-05-11 16:59:31 :: estagiario -> administrator :: 2021-02-10 19:21:41 :: administrator -> marciana :: 2006 |
| 3. Conteúdo e estrutura | |
| É a matriz ou uma cópia? | é a matriz |
| Estágio do Conteúdo | concluido |
| Transferível | 1 |
| Tipo do Conteúdo | External Contribution |
| Palavras-Chave | seasonal forecasting seasonal rainfall anamalous climate El Niño-Southern Oscillation ENSO hydropower stations |
| Resumo | This study proposes an objective integrated seasonal forecasting system for producing well-calibrated probabilistic rainfall forecasts for South America. The proposed system has two components: (i) an empirical model that uses Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies as predictors for rainfall and (ii) a multimodel system composed of three European coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Three-month lead austral summer rainfall predictions produced by the components of the system are integrated (i.e., combined and calibrated) using a Bayesian forecast assimilation procedure. The skill of empirical, coupled multimodel, and integrated forecasts obtained with forecast assimilation is assessed and compared. The simple coupled multimodel ensemble has a comparable level of skill to that obtained using a simplified empirical approach. As for most regions of the globe, seasonal forecast skill for South America is low. However, when empirical and coupled multimodel predictions are combined and calibrated using forecast assimilation, more skillful integrated forecasts are obtained than with either empirical or coupled multimodel predictions alone. Both the reliability and resolution of the forecasts have been improved by forecast assimilation in several regions of South America. The Tropics and the area of southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and northern Argentina have been found to be the two most predictable regions of South America during the austral summer. Skillful rainfall forecasts are generally only possible during El Niño or La Niña years rather than in neutral years. |
| Área | MET |
| Arranjo | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > DIDOP > Toward an integrated... |
| Conteúdo da Pasta doc | acessar |
| Conteúdo da Pasta source | não têm arquivos |
| Conteúdo da Pasta agreement | não têm arquivos |
| 4. Condições de acesso e uso | |
| URI dos dados | upn:LNRMAL:6qtX3pFwXQZGivnK2Y/NhzTK |
| URL dos dados | http://urlib.net/ibi/6qtX3pFwXQZGivnK2Y/NhzTK |
| URL dos dados zipados | http://urlib.net/zip/6qtX3pFwXQZGivnK2Y/NhzTK |
| Idioma | en |
| Arquivo Alvo | Coelho.Toward.pdf |
| Grupo de Usuários | administrator estagiario |
| Visibilidade | shown |
| Detentor da Cópia | SID/SCD |
| Política de Arquivamento | denypublisher6 allowfinaldraft |
| Permissão de Leitura | allow from all |
| 5. Fontes relacionadas | |
| Unidades Imediatamente Superiores | 8JMKD3MGPCW/43SQKNE |
| Lista de Itens Citando | sid.inpe.br/bibdigital/2021/01.02.22.14 - 28 sid.inpe.br/bibdigital@80/2006/04.07.15.50.13 - 6 |
| URL (dados não confiáveis) | http://www.ametsoc.org |
| Divulgação | WEBSCI; PORTALCAPES; AGU; MGA; COMPENDEX. |
| 6. Notas | |
| Campos Vazios | alternatejournal archivist callnumber copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel documentstage doi format isbn label lineage mark mirrorrepository nextedition notes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project readergroup resumeid rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarymark session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark tertiarytype typeofwork versiontype |
| 7. Controle da descrição | |
| e-Mail (login) | marciana |
| atualizar | |