| 1. Identificação | ||||
| Tipo de Referência | Artigo em Evento (Conference Proceedings) | |||
| Site | mtc-m16b.sid.inpe.br | |||
| Código do Detentor | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S | |||
| Repositório | cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.31.22.22 | |||
| Última Atualização | 2006:04.15.18.17.22 (UTC) administrator | |||
| Repositório de Metadados | cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.31.22.22.12 | |||
| Última Atualização dos Metadados | 2018:06.05.03.43.03 (UTC) administrator | |||
| Chave de Citação | GrimmNato:2006:MeFiVa | |||
| Título | Impacts of climate change in South America: mean fields and variability  | |||
| Formato | CD-ROM, On-line. | |||
| Ano | 2006 | |||
| Data de Acesso | 26 dez. 2024 | |||
| Tipo Secundário | PRE CI | |||
| Número de Arquivos | 1 | |||
| Tamanho | 487 KiB | |||
| 2. Contextualização | ||||
| Autor | 1 Grimm, Alice Marlene 2 Natori, Angela Akie | |||
| Afiliação | 1 Universidade Federal do Paraná, Departamento de Física 2 Caixa Postal 19044. 81531-990 Curitiba, PR, Brazil. (Grimm 3 Natori) | |||
| Endereço de e-Mail do Autor | 1 grimm@fisica.ufpr.br 2 a_natori@yahoo.com | |||
| Editor | Vera, Carolina Nobre, Carlos | |||
| Endereço de e-Mail | grimm@fisica.ufpr.br | |||
| Nome do Evento | International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, 8 (ICSHMO). | |||
| Localização do Evento | Foz do Iguaçu | |||
| Data | 24-28 Apr. 2006 | |||
| Editora (Publisher) | American Meteorological Society (AMS) | |||
| Cidade da Editora | 45 Beacon Hill Road, Boston, MA, USA | |||
| Páginas | 269-274 | |||
| Título do Livro | Proceedings | |||
| Tipo Terciário | Poster | |||
| Organização | American Meteorological Society (AMS) | |||
| Histórico (UTC) | 2005-10-31 22:22:12 :: grimm@fisica.ufpr.br -> adm_conf :: 2005-12-15 15:35:37 :: adm_conf -> grimm@fisica.ufpr.br :: 2006-03-29 23:54:45 :: grimm@fisica.ufpr.br -> administrator :: 2006-04-18 21:18:04 :: administrator -> lise@dpi.inpe.br :: 2010-12-28 12:36:48 :: lise@dpi.inpe.br -> administrator :: 2010-12-29 15:58:53 :: administrator -> lise@dpi.inpe.br :: 2006 2010-12-29 16:06:13 :: lise@dpi.inpe.br -> administrator :: 2006 2010-12-29 18:54:36 :: administrator -> banon :: 2006 2011-01-02 17:15:13 :: banon -> administrator :: 2006 2018-06-05 03:43:03 :: administrator -> :: 2006 | |||
| 3. Conteúdo e estrutura | ||||
| É a matriz ou uma cópia? | é a matriz | |||
| Estágio do Conteúdo | concluido | |||
| Transferível | 1 | |||
| Palavras-Chave | Climate change South America precipitation temperature variability | |||
| Resumo | This paper examines the differences between climatological seasonal fields of precipitation and temperature over South America for present conditions (1961-1990) and under SRES A2 and B2 scenarios forcing conditions (2071-2100), as well as the changes in interannual variability of these fields. The data are produced by six low-resolution (longitudinal spacing more than 2.5 degrees) and one high-resolution atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, and two high-resolution atmosphere general circulation models (longitudinal spacing less than 1.875 degrees) driven by sea surface temperature output from a low-resolution coupled model. On average, the best present climatology is provided by Max Planck Institute and Hadley Center models. The differences between the mean fields obtained from the six low-resolution coupled models for the two periods show considerable discrepancies. The most similar responses are from ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM3 models. For instance, in spring these two models indicate decreasing rainfall in north, center and southeast of Brazil and increasing rainfall in southern Brazil. Other three models indicate negligible impact over these regions and the sixth model shows changes of opposite sign. Similar discrepancies do occur in the other seasons as well. The changes in temperature agree with respect to a general warming, but the magnitude and location of the centers of maximum change are also discrepant among different models. The high resolution and low-resolution models with similar physical basis do also present great differences in their indication of climate change. The differences are smaller when the high-resolution model uses the SST produced by the coupled low-resolution model as boundary condition. The interannual variability of spring and summer precipitation and its relationship with SST was analyzed using the output of ECHAM5/MPI-OM higher resolution coupled model for the A2 emission scenario. The first mode of variability, both in spring and summer, is associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In both seasons it features a dipole of anomalies between northern and southern Brazil. For present conditions (1961-1990) the centers of these dipoles are shifted with respect to their observational counterparts and in summer the anomalies in southern Brazil are overestimated. The correlation between the principal components series and SST reproduces reasonably the ENSO pattern. For future scenario (2071-2100), the southern centre of the precipitation dipole weakens and the northern centre extends southward. In spring, the correlation pattern with SST weakens considerably in eastern equatorial Pacific, as well as in the subtropics, which is consistent with smaller precipitation anomalies in southern Brazil. The correlation also weakens in eastern equatorial Pacific in summer, although correlation coefficients in the subtropics are stronger. There are also other changes in variability, related with the tropical Atlantic SST and northeastern Brazil precipitation. The relationship between ENSO events and precipitation variability in Brazil weakens for the A2 scenario, both in spring and winter, mainly in the eastern equatorial Pacific and especially in spring, which is presently the season with strongest ENSO-related impact. This suggests that either ENSO events will weaken or their relationships with southern Brazil precipitation will weaken due to differences in the atmospheric basic state, at least in the analyzed period.. | |||
| Área | MET | |||
| Tipo | Climate change in the SH | |||
| Conteúdo da Pasta doc | acessar | |||
| Conteúdo da Pasta source |
| |||
| Conteúdo da Pasta agreement | não têm arquivos | |||
| 4. Condições de acesso e uso | ||||
| URL dos dados | http://urlib.net/ibi/cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.31.22.22 | |||
| URL dos dados zipados | http://urlib.net/zip/cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.31.22.22 | |||
| Idioma | en | |||
| Arquivo Alvo | 269-274.pdf | |||
| Grupo de Usuários | grimm@fisica.ufpr.br administrator | |||
| Visibilidade | shown | |||
| 5. Fontes relacionadas | ||||
| Acervo Hospedeiro | cptec.inpe.br/nobre/2005/06.02.21.14 cptec.inpe.br/walmeida/2003/04.25.17.12 | |||
| 6. Notas | ||||
| Nota | 1 | |||
| Campos Vazios | archivingpolicy archivist callnumber contenttype copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel dissemination documentstage doi edition group identifier isbn issn label lineage mirrorrepository nextedition nexthigherunit notes numberofvolumes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project readergroup readpermission resumeid rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarykey secondarymark serieseditor session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark url versiontype volume | |||