1. Identity statement | |
Reference Type | Conference Paper (Conference Proceedings) |
Site | mtc-m16b.sid.inpe.br |
Holder Code | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S |
Repository | cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.31.16.36 |
Last Update | 2006:04.16.15.39.30 (UTC) administrator |
Metadata Repository | cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.31.16.36.46 |
Metadata Last Update | 2018:06.05.03.42.55 (UTC) administrator |
Citation Key | LeiteDiasRotu:2006:EfPrFo |
Title | The effect of precipitaton forecasts and monitoring on hourly hydrological statistical prediction models ![](http://mtc-m16b.sid.inpe.br/col/dpi.inpe.br/banon/2000/01.23.20.24/doc/externalLink.gif) |
Format | CD-ROM, On-line. |
Year | 2006 |
Access Date | 2024, Dec. 26 |
Secondary Type | PRE CI |
Number of Files | 1 |
Size | 306 KiB |
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2. Context | |
Author | 1 Leite, Eduardo Alvim 2 Dias, Nelson Luís 3 Rotunno Filho, Otto Corrêa |
Affiliation | 1 Instituto Tecnológico SIMEPAR 2 Lemma-Universidade Federal do Paraná 3 COPPE-Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro |
Author e-Mail Address | 1 alvim@simepar.br 2 nldias@ufpr.br 3 otto@hidro.ufrj.br |
Editor | Vera, Carolina Nobre, Carlos |
e-Mail Address | alvim@simepar.br |
Conference Name | International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, 8 (ICSHMO). |
Conference Location | Foz do Iguaçu |
Date | 24-28 Apr. 2006 |
Publisher | American Meteorological Society (AMS) |
Publisher City | 45 Beacon Hill Road, Boston, MA, USA |
Pages | 781-785 |
Book Title | Proceedings |
Tertiary Type | Oral |
Organization | American Meteorological Society (AMS) |
History (UTC) | 2005-10-31 16:36:46 :: alvim@simepar.br -> adm_conf :: 2005-12-16 01:55:26 :: adm_conf -> alvim@simepar.br :: 2006-03-14 19:23:57 :: alvim@simepar.br -> administrator :: 2006-04-18 21:08:09 :: administrator -> lise@dpi.inpe.br :: 2010-12-28 12:36:36 :: lise@dpi.inpe.br -> administrator :: 2010-12-29 15:57:24 :: administrator -> lise@dpi.inpe.br :: 2006 2010-12-29 16:05:59 :: lise@dpi.inpe.br -> administrator :: 2006 2010-12-29 18:53:10 :: administrator -> banon :: 2006 2011-01-02 17:14:59 :: banon -> administrator :: 2006 2018-06-05 03:42:55 :: administrator -> :: 2006 |
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3. Content and structure | |
Is the master or a copy? | is the master |
Content Stage | completed |
Transferable | 1 |
Keywords | Precipitation forecasts hydrological forecasts statistical models |
Abstract | Daily and hourly streamflow forecasts are an important tool for the management of Foz do Areia reservoir in the Iguassu River. Foz do Areia is a hydropower reservoir; it is the first along the Igaussu cascade and also the largest, being responsible for regulating all downstream reservoirs. Historically, streamflow forecasts have relied on a conventional network of streamgages, read twice a day. Ever since 1998, an automated network with GOES telemetry has been implemented, so that now hourly precipitation and river flows are available every 3 hours to be used in streamflow forecasts. We have evaluated the performance of the following modes of hourly streamflow forecasts: a) using only daily observed streamflows; b) using only hourly observed streamflows and c) using both hourly observed streamflows and precipitation, and precipitation forecasts. The streamflow forecasts are based on standard ARIMA models and Kalman filters. These are easily implemented and commonly employed by the Brazilian hydropower companies. They also allow a straightforward assessment of two different aspects of streamflow forecasting: (1) the impact of an automated, telemetric network on the quality of the hourly forecasts and (2) the impact of incorporating precipitation forecasts in the streamflow forecasting. Our main results are the following: when daily observed streamflows are used to predict future hourly streamflows by means of standard ARIMA models, the rising limb of the hydrographs are consistently under-predicted, due to the well-known phase difference in these models. After the observed peak, ARIMA models tend to overshoot and over-predict until a recession is well established. When the hourly data from the automated network are used, it is possible the possible to reduce both kinds of error, which however cannot be completely eliminated, leaving ample room for improvement. Even the application of Kalman filters with streamflow data alone is not able to substatianlly change the picture. Hydrologically this can be explained by the fact that steep catchments which contribute directly to the inflow to Foz do Areia have a relatively short response time, so that precipitation occuring very close to this reservoir is key to good hydrological forecasts. Therefore, when in mode (c) we included simulations of predicted rain with varying accuracy levels, the quality of the streamflow forecasts improved substantially. This was improved by applying a dual-mode, dry/wet Kalman filter, based on the knowledge that precipitation started to occur over the catchment. We were thus able to establish the relationship between precipitation forecast accuracy to streamflow forecast accuracy. It turns out that simply achieving a good forecast of the precipitation class (in our case, we simulated 5 classes) is already enough for most hydrological purposes in 24-hour ahead forecasts. |
Area | MET |
Type | Hydrological variability and modeling |
doc Directory Content | access |
source Directory Content | The_effect_of_precipitation.doc | 14/03/2006 16:23 | 197.0 KiB | |
agreement Directory Content | there are no files |
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4. Conditions of access and use | |
data URL | http://urlib.net/ibi/cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.31.16.36 |
zipped data URL | http://urlib.net/zip/cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.31.16.36 |
Language | en |
Target File | 781-785.pdf |
User Group | alvim@simepar.br administrator |
Visibility | shown |
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5. Allied materials | |
Host Collection | cptec.inpe.br/nobre/2005/06.02.21.14 cptec.inpe.br/walmeida/2003/04.25.17.12 |
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6. Notes | |
Mark | 1 |
Empty Fields | archivingpolicy archivist callnumber contenttype copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel dissemination documentstage doi edition group identifier isbn issn label lineage mirrorrepository nextedition nexthigherunit notes numberofvolumes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project readergroup readpermission resumeid rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarykey secondarymark serieseditor session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark url versiontype volume |
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