| 1. Identity statement | |
| Reference Type | Conference Paper (Conference Proceedings) |
| Site | mtc-m16b.sid.inpe.br |
| Holder Code | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S |
| Repository | cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.31.12.09 |
| Last Update | 2006:04.16.17.11.52 (UTC) administrator |
| Metadata Repository | cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.31.12.09.18 |
| Metadata Last Update | 2021:02.10.19.21.57 (UTC) administrator |
| Secondary Key | INPE-13848-PRE/9030 |
| Citation Key | DiasMoreDoli:2006:MaSuMo |
| Title | The Master Super Model Ensemble System (MSMES)  |
| Format | CD-ROM; On-line. |
| Year | 2006 |
| Access Date | 2025, Aug. 31 |
| Secondary Type | PRE CI |
| Number of Files | 1 |
| Size | 312 KiB |
| 2. Context | |
| Author | 1 Dias, Pedro Leite da Silva 2 Moreira, Demerval Soares 3 Dolif Neto, Giovanni |
| Group | 1 DOP-INPE-MCT-BR 2 DOP-INPE-MCT-BR |
| Affiliation | 1 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 2 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) |
| Author e-Mail Address | 1 pldsdias@master.iag.usp.br 2 demerval@cptec.inpe.br 3 giovanni@cptec.inpe.br |
| Editor | Vera, Carolina Nobre, Carlos |
| e-Mail Address | demerval@cptec.inpe.br |
| Conference Name | International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, 8 (ICSHMO). |
| Conference Location | Foz do Iguaçu |
| Date | 24-28 Apr. 2006 |
| Publisher | American Meteorological Society (AMS) |
| Publisher City | 45 Beacon Hill Road, Boston, MA, USA |
| Pages | 1751-1757 |
| Book Title | Proceedings |
| Tertiary Type | Poster |
| Organization | American Meteorological Society (AMS) |
| History (UTC) | 2005-10-31 12:09:19 :: demerval@cptec.inpe.br -> administrator :: 2005-11-11 21:53:46 :: administrator -> adm_conf :: 2005-12-15 16:46:41 :: adm_conf -> demerval@cptec.inpe.br :: 2006-03-29 18:44:46 :: demerval@cptec.inpe.br -> administrator :: 2006-04-18 21:05:07 :: administrator -> lise@dpi.inpe.br :: 2010-12-28 12:36:32 :: lise@dpi.inpe.br -> administrator :: 2010-12-29 15:56:58 :: administrator -> lise@dpi.inpe.br :: 2006 2010-12-29 16:05:55 :: lise@dpi.inpe.br -> administrator :: 2006 2010-12-29 18:52:46 :: administrator -> banon :: 2006 2011-01-02 17:14:55 :: banon -> administrator :: 2006 2021-02-10 19:21:57 :: administrator -> :: 2006 |
| 3. Content and structure | |
| Is the master or a copy? | is the master |
| Content Stage | completed |
| Transferable | 1 |
| Keywords | Super-Model ensemble statistical model mean square error bias uncertainness index |
| Abstract | A statistical model of weather forecast has been implemented at the weather laboratory at the University of São Paulo (MASTER/IAG/USP Laboratory - www.master.iag.usp.br). This statistical forecast is obtained on a routine daily basis from an ensemble of six global models and fourteen regional models of numerical weather prediction (NWP). The optimal combination of the several individual forecasts is obtained by the weighted mean of the forecasts after bias removal. The weights are provided by the inverse of the mean square error (MSE) of each forecast. The evaluation metric is based on the fit of the forecast to the surface data. METAR, SYNOP and the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies CPTEC automatic weather stations. . The predicted variables are: a) temperature; b) dew point temperature; c) zonal wind; d) meridional wind; e) sea level pressure; f) precipitation. Precipitation estimates provided by TRMM, NAVY and CPTEC are treated separately. To evaluate the statistical model, the MSE and bias averaged in 15 days period are calculated for each station. The choice of the 15 days period is based on the fact that the forecast errors are somewhat influences by the intraseasonal oscillation. Real time forecasts are available at the MASTER homepage. The statistical models evaluation indicates that the products are very robust and competitive. Separate evaluation is provided for different regions of Brazil and the statistical combination is better than any individual forecast in the mean sense. Concerning precipitation, the results are not statistically sound for the 6 hour accumulated precipitation (TRMM and NAVY), but for 24 hours accumulated precipitation the results are very robust. To appraise the accuracy of this forecast an uncertainness index is calculated. Low values of this index indicate that there isn't large dispersion between forecasts and also indicate that these forecasts are similar to statistical model forecast, thus increasing the confidence in the statistical forecasts. |
| Area | MET |
| Type | Weather analysis and forecasting |
| Arrangement | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > DIDOP > The Master Super... |
| doc Directory Content | access |
| source Directory Content | there are no files |
| agreement Directory Content | there are no files |
| 4. Conditions of access and use | |
| data URL | http://urlib.net/ibi/cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.31.12.09 |
| zipped data URL | http://urlib.net/zip/cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.31.12.09 |
| Language | en |
| Target File | 1751-1758.pdf |
| User Group | administrator demerval@cptec.inpe.br lise@dpi.inpe.br administrator banon |
| Visibility | shown |
| Copy Holder | SID/SCD |
| Read Permission | allow from all |
| 5. Allied materials | |
| Next Higher Units | 8JMKD3MGPCW/43SQKNE |
| Citing Item List | sid.inpe.br/bibdigital/2021/01.02.22.14 - 10 |
| Host Collection | cptec.inpe.br/nobre/2005/06.02.21.14 cptec.inpe.br/walmeida/2003/04.25.17.12 |
| 6. Notes | |
| Mark | 1 |
| Empty Fields | archivingpolicy archivist callnumber contenttype copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel dissemination documentstage doi edition identifier isbn issn label lineage mirrorrepository nextedition notes numberofvolumes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project readergroup resumeid rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarymark serieseditor session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark url versiontype volume |