| 1. Identity statement | ||||
| Reference Type | Conference Paper (Conference Proceedings) | |||
| Site | mtc-m16b.sid.inpe.br | |||
| Holder Code | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S | |||
| Repository | cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.30.04.13 | |||
| Last Update | 2006:04.16.17.28.34 (UTC) administrator | |||
| Metadata Repository | cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.30.04.13.37 | |||
| Metadata Last Update | 2021:02.10.19.01.54 (UTC) administrator | |||
| Secondary Key | INPE-13836-PRE/9018 | |||
| Citation Key | HeldGomeNasc:2006:InTo | |||
| Title | Forecasting a severe weather occurrence in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, on 24 may 2005: the Indaiatuba tornado  | |||
| Format | CD-ROM; On-line. | |||
| Year | 2006 | |||
| Access Date | 2024, Dec. 26 | |||
| Secondary Type | PRE CI | |||
| Number of Files | 1 | |||
| Size | 679 KiB | |||
| 2. Context | ||||
| Author | 1 Held, Gerhard 2 Gomes, Jorge Luis 3 Nascimento, Ernani de Lima | |||
| Group | 1 2 DMD-INPE-MCT-BR | |||
| Affiliation | 1 Instituto de Pesquisas Meteorológicas, Universidade Estadual Paulista 2 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 3 Instituto Tecnológico SIMEPAR, Universidade Federal do Paraná | |||
| Author e-Mail Address | 1 gerhard@ipmet.unesp.br | |||
| Editor | Vera, Carolina Nobre, Carlos | |||
| e-Mail Address | gerhard@ipmet.unesp.br | |||
| Conference Name | International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, 8 (ICSHMO). | |||
| Conference Location | Foz do Iguaçu | |||
| Date | 24-28 Apr. 2006 | |||
| Publisher | American Meteorological Society (AMS) | |||
| Publisher City | 45 Beacon Hill Road, Boston, MA, USA | |||
| Pages | 1799-1807 | |||
| Book Title | Proceedings | |||
| Tertiary Type | Poster | |||
| Organization | American Meteorological Society (AMS) | |||
| History (UTC) | 2005-10-30 04:13:37 :: gerhard@ipmet.unesp.br -> administrator :: 2005-11-11 21:53:43 :: administrator -> adm_conf :: 2005-12-15 16:31:01 :: adm_conf -> gerhard@ipmet.unesp.br :: 2006-04-04 14:39:40 :: gerhard@ipmet.unesp.br -> administrator :: 2006-04-18 21:03:36 :: administrator -> lise@dpi.inpe.br :: 2010-12-28 12:36:31 :: lise@dpi.inpe.br -> administrator :: 2010-12-29 15:56:46 :: administrator -> lise@dpi.inpe.br :: 2006 2010-12-29 16:05:53 :: lise@dpi.inpe.br -> administrator :: 2006 2010-12-29 18:52:34 :: administrator -> banon :: 2006 2011-01-02 17:14:53 :: banon -> administrator :: 2006 2021-02-10 19:01:54 :: administrator -> :: 2006 | |||
| 3. Content and structure | ||||
| Is the master or a copy? | is the master | |||
| Content Stage | completed | |||
| Transferable | 1 | |||
| Keywords | weather forecast severe storms Regional ETA Model Meso-ETA Model tornadoes State of Sao Paulo Brazil | |||
| Abstract | The synoptic pattern over the State of São Paulo on 24 May 2005 displayed characteristics often associated with classic mid-latitude severe weather outbreaks. Severe convective storms developed ahead of a migratory baroclinic system, clearly shown as a 500 hPa trough, where synoptic-scale upward motion was favored. Thus, large-scale destabilization occurred over the State of São Paulo that afternoon. In fact, the operational ETA-CPTEC 6-hr forecast sounding for the nearest gridpoint to the tornado occurrence displayed a relatively high surface-based convective available potential energy (CAPE) of 1700 J.kg-1. Upper-level divergence was predicted over most of the State of São Paulo that afternoon, with diffluent flow over the eastern sections of the State. This upper-level pattern provided further support for strong deep convection. Since the resolution of the Regional ETA model, disseminated operationally by the Centro de Previsão do Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC/INPE), is 40x40 km, the Instituto de Pesquisas Meteorológicas (IPMet/UNESP), in collaboration with CPTEC, also runs twice daily (00 and 12 UT) the Meso-ETA model, with its domain centered over Bauru. This model is initiated with the Regional ETA model and the resolution is 10x10km, with outputs every 3 hours. Almost 48 hours ahead (initiated on 22 May 2005, 21:00 LT), it already predicted the likely occurrence of an extremely severe storm event in the Campinas region, where ultimately an F3 (Fujita scale) tornado was observed. The most important predictants for this day were: low-level (850 hPa) humidity convergence, divergence at 300 hPa, Omega at 500 and 300 hPa, K-index, as well as the CAPE calculated for Indaiatuba. The 3-hourly accumulated rainfall was also predicted well in terms of onset and area, as compared to the accumulated radar rainfall. Vertical profiles, simulating radio soundings, were calculated for Bauru and Indaiatuba, which are about 200 km apart. The CAPE for Indaiatuba (1313 J/kg) was predicted to be about four times greater than that for Bauru (322 J/kg). Thus, based on the operationally available Regional ETA-CPTEC model, the predicted severe weather parameters (6 hours) did display some skill in highlighting the existence of a pre-storm environment that was favorable for significant severe weather development in the Indaiatuba region for the afternoon of 24 May 2005. However, a very good indication of the severe weather environment, in which the tornadic supercell developed, was provided by the Meso-ETA model (IPMet/CPTEC) at least 48 hours ahead, as will be demonstrated in the paper. N.B.: This paper goes together with "THE STRUCTURE OF THREE TORNADO-GENERATING STORMS BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING OBSERVATIONS IN THE STATE OF SÃO PAULO, BRAZIL" (ID=10.30.03.50). | |||
| Area | MET | |||
| Type | Weather analysis and forecasting | |||
| Arrangement | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > DIDMD > Forecasting a severe... | |||
| doc Directory Content | access | |||
| source Directory Content |
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| agreement Directory Content | there are no files | |||
| 4. Conditions of access and use | ||||
| data URL | http://urlib.net/ibi/cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.30.04.13 | |||
| zipped data URL | http://urlib.net/zip/cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.30.04.13 | |||
| Language | en | |||
| Target File | 1799-1808.pdf | |||
| User Group | administrator gerhard@ipmet.unesp.br administrator banon | |||
| Visibility | shown | |||
| Copy Holder | SID/SCD | |||
| Read Permission | allow from all | |||
| 5. Allied materials | ||||
| Next Higher Units | 8JMKD3MGPCW/43SKC35 | |||
| Citing Item List | sid.inpe.br/bibdigital/2021/01.01.17.20 3 | |||
| Host Collection | cptec.inpe.br/nobre/2005/06.02.21.14 cptec.inpe.br/walmeida/2003/04.25.17.12 | |||
| 6. Notes | ||||
| Mark | 1 | |||
| Empty Fields | archivingpolicy archivist callnumber contenttype copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel dissemination documentstage doi edition identifier isbn issn label lineage mirrorrepository nextedition notes numberofvolumes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project readergroup resumeid rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarymark serieseditor session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark url versiontype volume | |||