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High resolution s)9(c)3(enarios)9( )]TJ 0.2555 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(develop)5(ed from regio)5(nal )6(climate mod)5(e)-1(l results)9( )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.07 Tw T* [(have been a)5(pplied to imp)5(a)-1(cts assessments only )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.2977 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(in the )6(past f)8(ive years i)6(n)5( vario)5(u)-1(s pa)5(rts of the )]TJ 0.0005 Tc 0.0031 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(w)10(orld, as in North Amer)]TJ 0 Tc 0.0036 Tw 10.4551 0 Td [(ica )6(and Europe a)5(s)3( part of )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.2498 Tw -10.4551 -1.1497 Td [(internatio)5(nal )6(projects. M)6(o)-1(st of these activities )]TJ 0.2198 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(have linked t)8(o)-1( impleme)5(n)-1(tation of scenarios for )]TJ 0.8606 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(the UNFCC National )6(Communicati)6(ons on)5( )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 0.1415 Tw T* [(Climate Change at the c)9(ount)]TJ -0.0009 Tc 0.1422 Tw 13.2216 0 Td [(ry level. )6(In studies )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 0.1535 Tw -13.2216 -1.1437 Td [(so far, mainly concerning)5( agriculture and )-6(w)15(a)-1(ter )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 1.0939 Tw T* [(resou)5(r)-3(ces, significant differences)9( in the )]TJ 0.2855 Tw T* [(estimated impacts based on spatial resolution)5( )]TJ 0.0003 Tc 0.0093 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(are foun)6(d. Therefo)6(r)-2(e, there)6( is a need for regio)6(nal)7( )]TJ -0.0005 Tc -0.0019 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(climate change scenarios )6(in South America. )]TJ 0 Tc 0 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD ( )Tj 0 -1.1497 TD ( )Tj 0.0003 Tc 9 0 0 9 72 129.2003 Tm [(--------------------)7(--------------------)7(--------------------)7(------------ )]TJ 0 Tc 0.2155 Tw 0 -1.1467 TD [(* CP)7(T)-9(EC/INP)7(E. Rodov)-7(ia Dutra km. 40, 126300-000 )]TJ -0.0014 Tc 1.7969 Tw 0 -1.1533 TD [(Cach)-5(oeir)-8(a)1( )-7(Paul)-6(ista, Sao Pa)-5(ulo,)-10( Brazil,)-10( )]TJ 0 0 1 scn -0.0006 Tc 0 Tw 0 -1.1467 TD [(marengo@c)-7(p)2(tec.inpe.br)]TJ ET 72 97.22 96.12 -0.66 re f 0 0 0 scn BT /TT5 1 Tf 0 Tc 9 0 0 9 168.12 98.1803 Tm ( )Tj -0.0009 Tc 0.0697 Tw -10.68 -1.1533 Td [(*)-5(*)2( IAG/USP, Dept. Ci\352nc)-8(ias )-7(Atmosf\351ricas, S\343o Pau)-5(l)1(o,)-10( )]TJ -0.0013 Tc 0 Tw T* (Brazil )Tj /TT4 1 Tf -0.0008 Tc -0.0016 Tw 10.02 0 0 10.02 306.54 634.1603 Tm [(Regional Modeling Strate)5(gy )]TJ 0 Tc 0 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD ( )Tj /TT5 1 Tf -0.0005 Tc 0.2556 Tw 0 -1.1377 TD [(This section )-6(presents an )6(overall discu)5(ssion of )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.7348 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(the pri)6(n)-1(ciple)5(s)2(, objectives and )6(assumptions )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 0.914 Tw T* [(unde)5(rlying t)8(he different)8( techniqu)5(es today )]TJ 0.3331 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(available)5( for de)5(riving )6(re)5(gional)6( climate chan)5(ge)5( )]TJ -0.0003 Tc 0.956 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(informatio)5(n. The )6(h)5(o)-1(rizontal )6(atmosphe)5(ric )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.5732 Tw T* [(resolution )6(of prese)5(n)-1(t d)5(a)-1(y AOGCMs is still )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 0.1176 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(relatively coa)5(r)-2(se, ord)5(e)-1(r of )6(300 km, and)5( )6(regio)5(nal )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.7645 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(climate is )-6(often affected by forcing an)5(d)5( )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.1658 Tw T* [(circulations that occur at )6(smaller scale)5(s \(Giorgi )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.022 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(and Me)5(arns )6(1991)5(\). As a result, AOGCMs cannot )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.3336 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(explicitly capture the)5( fine)5( scale structure th)5(at )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.0999 Tw T* [(characterizes)9( climatic variables in m)6(a)-1(n)5(y)3( regio)5(n)-1(s )]TJ 0.0003 Tc 0.0632 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(of the )-6(w)10(orld and that is neede)6(d for ma)6(ny impact )]TJ -0.0008 Tc 1.2739 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(assessment studies. Therefore)5(,)2( different )]TJ 0 Tc 1.4707 Tw T* [(''regi)7(onalizati)7(on" techni)7(ques have)5( been)5( )]TJ 0.2192 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(develop)5(ed to)5( enha)5(nce th)5(e regi)7(onal i)7(n)5(formation )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.5251 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(provide)5(d)-1( by)9( AGCMs and AOGCM)6(s)3( and to)-7( )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.1657 Tw T* [(provide fin)5(e)-1( )6(scale climate informatio)5(n. To date,)8( )]TJ -0.0006 Tc 0.1539 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(most impact )-6(studies have used climate change)5( )]TJ 0.2438 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD (information provided by)Tj -0.0005 Tc 0.2436 Tw 10.8623 0 Td [( equilibri)6(um A)8(G)-1(CMs or )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.0639 Tw -10.8623 -1.1437 Td [(coupled AO)5(G)5(C)3(M simulations )-6(w)9(ithout any further )]TJ -0.0006 Tc 0.6509 Tw T* [(regio)5(nalizatio)5(n processing. This is prima)5(r)-3(ily )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.7466 Tw T* [(because of)8( the ready availability of this )]TJ 0 Tc 1.4527 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(informatio)5(n)5( and th)5(e relativel)7(y)3( recent )]TJ -0.0003 Tc -0.0021 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(developm)6(ent of region)5(aliza)5(t)2(ion techniqu)5(es. )]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0.1774 Tw T* [(For som)7(e)-1( a)5(p)5(p)-1(lications, the re)5(gion)5(al inf)8(o)-1(rmatio)5(n )]TJ -0.0008 Tc 0.4056 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(provide)5(d)-1( by)8( AOGCMs may be sufficient, for)-9( )]TJ -0.0003 Tc 0.4889 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(example w)15(h)-7(en sub)5(-)-3(g)5(r)-3(id)5( scale vari)6(a)5(t)2(ions are )]TJ 0 Tc 0.1114 Tw T* [(w)10(eak or )-6(w)16(hen assessmen)5(ts are )6(global)7( )6(in scale. )]TJ -0.0008 Tc 0.0882 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(In fact, )-6(from the theoretical vie)-7(w)9( point, t)-4(he main )]TJ 0 Tc 1.0635 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(advantag)5(e of obtainin)5(g)-1( regi)7(onal)7( climate )]TJ -0.0006 Tc 0.7527 Tw T* [(informatio)5(n directly from AOGCMs is the )]TJ 0.1958 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(kno)-7(w)15(ledge that internal p)5(h)-1(ysical consistency is)-10( )]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0.1534 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(maintaine)5(d)-1(. The "a)5(dde)5(d value" )-6(p)5(r)-2(ovid)5(ed )-6(by )-6(th)5(e )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 0.0517 Tw T* [(regio)5(nalizatio)5(n techniques )6(depe)5(nd on th)5(e spatial )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.004 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(and temp)5(oral )6(scales of interest, as )-6(w)9(e)-1(ll as on the)-7( )]TJ 0.0001 Tc 0.0275 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(variables co)5(n)5(c)3(erned)5( an)5(d o)5(n)]TJ -0.0003 Tc 0.0279 Tw 12.3413 0 Td [( the climate)5( )6(statistics )]TJ 0.0009 Tc 0 Tw -12.3413 -1.1497 Td [(requi)8(re)6(d. )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.9983 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(What is commonly k)8(n)-1(o)-7(w)15(n as dynamic )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.022 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(do)-7(w)15(n)-1(scaling refers to as ne)5(sted RCM model into)5( )]TJ 0.9202 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(a AOGCM. The AO)5(GCM provi)6(de initial)6( )]TJ 0.0002 Tc 1.6621 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(conditions)9( and)6( time-d)6(epe)6(nde)6(nt lateral)7( )]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0.5965 Tw T* [(meteorologic)9(a)-1(l bo)5(und)5(ary)9( conditions)9( to d)5(r)-2(ive )]TJ -0.0006 Tc 0.4533 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(high-resolutio)5(n)-1( RCM )-6(simulations for selected )]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0.4947 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(time periods)9( of the global model run \(e.g. )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.064 Tw T* [(Dickinson et al. 198)5(9; Gio)5(r)3(gi 19)5(90\). S)8(e)-1(a)5( surface )]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0.1774 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(temperature)5( )6(\(SST\), sea ic)9(e, gre)5(enh)5(ous)9(e gases )]TJ 0 g /RelativeColorimetric ri ET /GS7 gs BT /T1_3 1 Tf 0 Tc 0 Tw 10 0 0 10 290 28.3465 Tm 0 0.218 TD (291)Tj ET endstream endobj 134 0 obj 10460 endobj 135 0 obj << /Type /ExtGState /TR2 /Default /CA 1 /ca 1 /SA false >> endobj 136 0 obj << /Length 137 0 R >> stream /CS4 cs 0 0 0 scn 1 i /RelativeColorimetric ri /GS8 gs BT /TT6 1 Tf 10.02 0 0 10.02 72 38.4203 Tm ( )Tj /T1_4 1 Tf -0.0008 Tc -0.0016 Tw 7.9581 72.0778 Td (USE OF REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS IN IMPACTS ASSESSMENTS AND)Tj -0.0003 Tc -0.0021 Tw -5.5345 -1.1497 Td (ADAPTATIONS STUDIES FROM CONTINENTAL TO REGIONAL AND LOCAL SCALES)Tj /TT7 1 Tf 0 Tc 0 Tw 20.0974 -1.1437 Td ( )Tj -0.0008 Tc -0.0016 Tw -20.5449 -1.1497 Td [(The CREAS )-6(\(Regional Climate Chang)5(e)-1( Scenario)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -0.0023 Tw 22.6886 0 Td [(s )6(for South A)10(m)3(erica\) initi)8(a)-1(ti)-10(v)23(e)-1( in)-6( South )]TJ -0.0008 Tc 0 Tw -4.1138 -1.1497 Td (America )Tj /TT6 1 Tf 0 Tc 1.9701 -1.1257 Td ( )Tj 0 -1.1497 TD ( )Tj /TT7 1 Tf -0.0009 Tc -0.0015 Tw -6.7964 -1.1677 Td (J. A. Marengo*, T. Ambrizzi** )Tj 0 Tc 0 Tw 6.7964 -1.1437 Td ( )Tj T* ( )Tj /TT8 1 Tf -18.9281 -1.1437 Td ( )Tj /TT7 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc -3.5928 -1.1497 Td [(Introduc)5(tion)6( )]TJ /TT8 1 Tf 0 Tc 0 -1.1437 TD ( )Tj -0.0005 Tc 0.4293 Tw T* [(Regional Climate Model)6(s \(RCMs\) a)-7(r)-3(e useful)6( )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 0.5727 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(tools for generatin)5(g hig)5(h)-1( resolution)5( climate )]TJ -0.0003 Tc 0.0458 Tw T* [(change scen)5(a)-1(rios for use )6(in climate impacts and)5( )]TJ 0.1058 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(adaptatio)5(n studies. Coupl)6(ed Atmosphe)5(re-Ocean )]TJ 0.5968 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(Global Clim)6(ate Models)9( \(AOGCMs\) are the )]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0.1953 Tw T* [(modelin)5(g too)5(l)1(s traditionall)7(y)3( used for generating )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.7586 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(climate change projections and scenarios.)8( )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.2076 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(Ho)-7(w)15(e)-1(ver, the horizo)5(n)-1(tal at)8(mosphe)5(ric re)5(solution )]TJ -0.0012 Tc 0.0407 Tw T* (of present day AOGCMs is still relatively coarse, )Tj -0.0002 Tc 0.2074 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(orde)5(r of )6(300)5( km, and re)5(gional climat)8(e is often )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.0699 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(affected by forcing a)5(nd ci)6(rculations tha)5(t)2( occur at )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.3217 Tw T* (smaller scales. As a result, AOGCMs cannot )Tj 0.3336 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(explicitly capture the)5( fine)5( scale structure th)5(at )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.0999 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(characterizes)9( climatic variables in m)6(a)-1(n)5(y)3( regio)5(n)-1(s )]TJ 0.0003 Tc 0.0632 Tw T* [(of the )-6(w)10(orld and that is neede)6(d for ma)6(ny impact )]TJ -0.0009 Tc -0.0015 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD (assessment studies.)Tj /TT7 1 Tf 0 Tc 0 Tw 9.0419 0 Td ( )Tj /TT8 1 Tf -0.0003 Tc 0.1656 Tw -9.0419 -1.1497 Td [(The issue of)8( the spatial resolution in )6(scenarios)9( )]TJ 0.0759 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(must be put i)6(n)-1( the contex)]TJ 11.5329 0 Td [(t)8( of other unc)9(ertainties )]TJ 0.441 Tw -11.5329 -1.1437 Td [(of climate chang)5(e. Studies and an)5(al)6(yses of )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 1.2014 Tw T* [(climate change imp)5(a)5(c)3(t and adaptation )]TJ 0.0816 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(assessments recognize th)5(at there a)5(r)-2(e )6(a numb)5(e)5(r)4( )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.148 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(of sources of uncertainty in such studies )-6(w)15(h)-1(ich)-7( )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.0459 Tw T* [(contribute to)5( )6(uncertainty in)5( the final )6(assessment. )]TJ -0.003 Tc 0.6773 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(T)-3(h)-4(e)-4( impo)-4(r)-5(t)-1(an)-4(ce)-4( o)-4(f)-1( h)-4(i)-2(gh)-4( r)-5(e)-4(so)-4(lu)-4(tion clima)-4(t)-1(e)-10( )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.3756 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(scenarios for impacts and ada)5(ptation)5( studies )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.1118 Tw T* [(remai)6(n)-1(s to b)5(e)-1( tho)5(r)-3(oug)5(hly )6(explore)5(d)-1( in)5( B)8(r)-3(azil an)5(d )]TJ 0.8303 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(South America. High resolution s)9(c)3(enarios)9( )]TJ 0.2555 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(develop)5(ed from regio)5(nal )6(climate mod)5(e)-1(l results)9( )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.07 Tw T* [(have been a)5(pplied to imp)5(a)-1(cts assessments only )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.2977 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(in the )6(past f)8(ive years i)6(n)5( vario)5(u)-1(s pa)5(rts of the )]TJ 0.0005 Tc 0.0031 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(w)10(orld, as in North Amer)]TJ 0 Tc 0.0036 Tw 10.4551 0 Td [(ica )6(and Europe a)5(s)3( part of )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.2498 Tw -10.4551 -1.1497 Td [(internatio)5(nal )6(projects. M)6(o)-1(st of these activities )]TJ 0.2198 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(have linked t)8(o)-1( impleme)5(n)-1(tation of scenarios for )]TJ 0.8606 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(the UNFCC National )6(Communicati)6(ons on)5( )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 0.1415 Tw T* [(Climate Change at the c)9(ount)]TJ -0.0009 Tc 0.1422 Tw 13.2216 0 Td [(ry level. )6(In studies )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 0.1535 Tw -13.2216 -1.1437 Td [(so far, mainly concerning)5( agriculture and )-6(w)15(a)-1(ter )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 1.0939 Tw T* [(resou)5(r)-3(ces, significant differences)9( in the )]TJ 0.2855 Tw T* [(estimated impacts based on spatial resolution)5( )]TJ 0.0003 Tc 0.0093 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(are foun)6(d. Therefo)6(r)-2(e, there)6( is a need for regio)6(nal)7( )]TJ -0.0005 Tc -0.0019 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(climate change scenarios )6(in South America. )]TJ 0 Tc 0 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD ( )Tj 0 -1.1497 TD ( )Tj 0.0003 Tc 9 0 0 9 72 129.2003 Tm [(--------------------)7(--------------------)7(--------------------)7(------------ )]TJ 0 Tc 0.2155 Tw 0 -1.1467 TD [(* CP)7(T)-9(EC/INP)7(E. Rodov)-7(ia Dutra km. 40, 126300-000 )]TJ -0.0014 Tc 1.7969 Tw 0 -1.1533 TD [(Cach)-5(oeir)-8(a)1( )-7(Paul)-6(ista, Sao Pa)-5(ulo,)-10( Brazil,)-10( )]TJ 0 0 1 scn -0.0006 Tc 0 Tw 0 -1.1467 TD [(marengo@c)-7(p)2(tec.inpe.br)]TJ ET 72 97.22 96.12 -0.66 re f 0 0 0 scn BT /TT8 1 Tf 0 Tc 9 0 0 9 168.12 98.1803 Tm ( )Tj -0.0009 Tc 0.0697 Tw -10.68 -1.1533 Td [(*)-5(*)2( IAG/USP, Dept. Ci\352nc)-8(ias )-7(Atmosf\351ricas, S\343o Pau)-5(l)1(o,)-10( )]TJ -0.0013 Tc 0 Tw T* (Brazil )Tj /TT7 1 Tf -0.0008 Tc -0.0016 Tw 10.02 0 0 10.02 306.54 634.1603 Tm [(Regional Modeling Strate)5(gy )]TJ 0 Tc 0 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD ( )Tj /TT8 1 Tf -0.0005 Tc 0.2556 Tw 0 -1.1377 TD [(This section )-6(presents an )6(overall discu)5(ssion of )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.7348 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(the pri)6(n)-1(ciple)5(s)2(, objectives and )6(assumptions )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 0.914 Tw T* [(unde)5(rlying t)8(he different)8( techniqu)5(es today )]TJ 0.3331 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(available)5( for de)5(riving )6(re)5(gional)6( climate chan)5(ge)5( )]TJ -0.0003 Tc 0.956 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(informatio)5(n. The )6(h)5(o)-1(rizontal )6(atmosphe)5(ric )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.5732 Tw T* [(resolution )6(of prese)5(n)-1(t d)5(a)-1(y AOGCMs is still )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 0.1176 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(relatively coa)5(r)-2(se, ord)5(e)-1(r of )6(300 km, and)5( )6(regio)5(nal )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.7645 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(climate is )-6(often affected by forcing an)5(d)5( )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.1658 Tw T* [(circulations that occur at )6(smaller scale)5(s \(Giorgi )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.022 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(and Me)5(arns )6(1991)5(\). As a result, AOGCMs cannot )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.3336 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(explicitly capture the)5( fine)5( scale structure th)5(at )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.0999 Tw T* [(characterizes)9( climatic variables in m)6(a)-1(n)5(y)3( regio)5(n)-1(s )]TJ 0.0003 Tc 0.0632 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(of the )-6(w)10(orld and that is neede)6(d for ma)6(ny impact )]TJ -0.0008 Tc 1.2739 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(assessment studies. Therefore)5(,)2( different )]TJ 0 Tc 1.4707 Tw T* [(''regi)7(onalizati)7(on" techni)7(ques have)5( been)5( )]TJ 0.2192 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(develop)5(ed to)5( enha)5(nce th)5(e regi)7(onal i)7(n)5(formation )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.5251 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(provide)5(d)-1( by)9( AGCMs and AOGCM)6(s)3( and to)-7( )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.1657 Tw T* [(provide fin)5(e)-1( )6(scale climate informatio)5(n. To date,)8( )]TJ -0.0006 Tc 0.1539 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(most impact )-6(studies have used climate change)5( )]TJ 0.2438 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD (information provided by)Tj -0.0005 Tc 0.2436 Tw 10.8623 0 Td [( equilibri)6(um A)8(G)-1(CMs or )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.0639 Tw -10.8623 -1.1437 Td [(coupled AO)5(G)5(C)3(M simulations )-6(w)9(ithout any further )]TJ -0.0006 Tc 0.6509 Tw T* [(regio)5(nalizatio)5(n processing. This is prima)5(r)-3(ily )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.7466 Tw T* [(because of)8( the ready availability of this )]TJ 0 Tc 1.4527 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(informatio)5(n)5( and th)5(e relativel)7(y)3( recent )]TJ -0.0003 Tc -0.0021 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(developm)6(ent of region)5(aliza)5(t)2(ion techniqu)5(es. )]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0.1774 Tw T* [(For som)7(e)-1( a)5(p)5(p)-1(lications, the re)5(gion)5(al inf)8(o)-1(rmatio)5(n )]TJ -0.0008 Tc 0.4056 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(provide)5(d)-1( by)8( AOGCMs may be sufficient, for)-9( )]TJ -0.0003 Tc 0.4889 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(example w)15(h)-7(en sub)5(-)-3(g)5(r)-3(id)5( scale vari)6(a)5(t)2(ions are )]TJ 0 Tc 0.1114 Tw T* [(w)10(eak or )-6(w)16(hen assessmen)5(ts are )6(global)7( )6(in scale. )]TJ -0.0008 Tc 0.0882 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(In fact, )-6(from the theoretical vie)-7(w)9( point, t)-4(he main )]TJ 0 Tc 1.0635 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(advantag)5(e of obtainin)5(g)-1( regi)7(onal)7( climate )]TJ -0.0006 Tc 0.7527 Tw T* [(informatio)5(n directly from AOGCMs is the )]TJ 0.1958 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(kno)-7(w)15(ledge that internal p)5(h)-1(ysical consistency is)-10( )]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0.1534 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(maintaine)5(d)-1(. The "a)5(dde)5(d value" )-6(p)5(r)-2(ovid)5(ed )-6(by )-6(th)5(e )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 0.0517 Tw T* [(regio)5(nalizatio)5(n techniques )6(depe)5(nd on th)5(e spatial )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.004 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(and temp)5(oral )6(scales of interest, as )-6(w)9(e)-1(ll as on the)-7( )]TJ 0.0001 Tc 0.0275 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(variables co)5(n)5(c)3(erned)5( an)5(d o)5(n)]TJ -0.0003 Tc 0.0279 Tw 12.3413 0 Td [( the climate)5( )6(statistics )]TJ 0.0009 Tc 0 Tw -12.3413 -1.1497 Td [(requi)8(re)6(d. )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.9983 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(What is commonly k)8(n)-1(o)-7(w)15(n as dynamic )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.022 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(do)-7(w)15(n)-1(scaling refers to as ne)5(sted RCM model into)5( )]TJ 0.9202 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(a AOGCM. The AO)5(GCM provi)6(de initial)6( )]TJ 0.0002 Tc 1.6621 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(conditions)9( and)6( time-d)6(epe)6(nde)6(nt lateral)7( )]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0.5965 Tw T* [(meteorologic)9(a)-1(l bo)5(und)5(ary)9( conditions)9( to d)5(r)-2(ive )]TJ -0.0006 Tc 0.4533 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(high-resolutio)5(n)-1( RCM )-6(simulations for selected )]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0.4947 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(time periods)9( of the global model run \(e.g. )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.064 Tw T* [(Dickinson et al. 198)5(9; Gio)5(r)3(gi 19)5(90\). S)8(e)-1(a)5( surface )]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0.1774 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(temperature)5( )6(\(SST\), sea ic)9(e, gre)5(enh)5(ous)9(e gases )]TJ 0 g /RelativeColorimetric ri ET /GS11 gs BT /T1_5 1 Tf 0 Tc 0 Tw 10 0 0 10 290 28.3465 Tm 0 0.218 TD (291)Tj ET endstream endobj 137 0 obj 10461 endobj 138 0 obj << /Type /ExtGState /TR2 /Default /CA 1 /ca 1 /SA false >> endobj 139 0 obj << /Length 140 0 R >> stream /CS6 cs 0 0 0 scn 1 i /RelativeColorimetric ri /GS12 gs BT /TT9 1 Tf 10.02 0 0 10.02 72 38.4203 Tm ( )Tj /T1_6 1 Tf -0.0008 Tc -0.0016 Tw 4.7387 72.0778 Td (USE OF REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS IN IMPACTS ASSESSMENTS AND)Tj -0.0003 Tc -0.0021 Tw -2.3151 -1.1497 Td (ADAPTATIONS STUDIES FROM CONTINENTAL TO REGIONAL AND LOCAL SCALES)Tj /TT10 1 Tf 0 Tc 0 Tw 20.0974 -1.1437 Td ( )Tj -0.0008 Tc -0.0016 Tw -20.5449 -1.1497 Td [(The CREAS )-6(\(Regional Climate Chang)5(e)-1( Scenario)]TJ -0.0001 Tc -0.0023 Tw 22.6886 0 Td [(s )6(for South A)10(m)3(erica\) initi)8(a)-1(ti)-10(v)23(e)-1( in)-6( South )]TJ -0.0008 Tc 0 Tw -4.1138 -1.1497 Td (America )Tj /TT9 1 Tf 0 Tc 1.9701 -1.1257 Td ( )Tj 0 -1.1497 TD ( )Tj /TT10 1 Tf -0.0009 Tc -0.0015 Tw -6.7964 -1.1677 Td (J. A. Marengo*, T. Ambrizzi** )Tj 0 Tc 0 Tw 6.7964 -1.1437 Td ( )Tj T* ( )Tj /TT11 1 Tf -18.9281 -1.1437 Td ( )Tj /TT10 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc -3.5928 -1.1497 Td [(Introduc)5(tion)6( )]TJ /TT11 1 Tf 0 Tc 0 -1.1437 TD ( )Tj -0.0005 Tc 0.4293 Tw T* [(Regional Climate Model)6(s \(RCMs\) a)-7(r)-3(e useful)6( )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 0.5727 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(tools for generatin)5(g hig)5(h)-1( resolution)5( climate )]TJ -0.0003 Tc 0.0458 Tw T* [(change scen)5(a)-1(rios for use )6(in climate impacts and)5( )]TJ 0.1058 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(adaptatio)5(n studies. Coupl)6(ed Atmosphe)5(re-Ocean )]TJ 0.5968 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(Global Clim)6(ate Models)9( \(AOGCMs\) are the )]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0.1953 Tw T* [(modelin)5(g too)5(l)1(s traditionall)7(y)3( used for generating )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.7586 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(climate change projections and scenarios.)8( )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.2076 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(Ho)-7(w)15(e)-1(ver, the horizo)5(n)-1(tal at)8(mosphe)5(ric re)5(solution )]TJ -0.0012 Tc 0.0407 Tw T* (of present day AOGCMs is still relatively coarse, )Tj -0.0002 Tc 0.2074 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(orde)5(r of )6(300)5( km, and re)5(gional climat)8(e is often )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.0699 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(affected by forcing a)5(nd ci)6(rculations tha)5(t)2( occur at )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.3217 Tw T* (smaller scales. As a result, AOGCMs cannot )Tj 0.3336 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(explicitly capture the)5( fine)5( scale structure th)5(at )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.0999 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(characterizes)9( climatic variables in m)6(a)-1(n)5(y)3( regio)5(n)-1(s )]TJ 0.0003 Tc 0.0632 Tw T* [(of the )-6(w)10(orld and that is neede)6(d for ma)6(ny impact )]TJ -0.0009 Tc -0.0015 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD (assessment studies.)Tj /TT10 1 Tf 0 Tc 0 Tw 9.0419 0 Td ( )Tj /TT11 1 Tf -0.0003 Tc 0.1656 Tw -9.0419 -1.1497 Td [(The issue of)8( the spatial resolution in )6(scenarios)9( )]TJ 0.0759 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(must be put i)6(n)-1( the contex)]TJ 11.5329 0 Td [(t)8( of other unc)9(ertainties )]TJ 0.441 Tw -11.5329 -1.1437 Td [(of climate chang)5(e. Studies and an)5(al)6(yses of )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 1.2014 Tw T* [(climate change imp)5(a)5(c)3(t and adaptation )]TJ 0.0816 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(assessments recognize th)5(at there a)5(r)-2(e )6(a numb)5(e)5(r)4( )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.148 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(of sources of uncertainty in such studies )-6(w)15(h)-1(ich)-7( )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.0459 Tw T* [(contribute to)5( )6(uncertainty in)5( the final )6(assessment. )]TJ -0.003 Tc 0.6773 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(T)-3(h)-4(e)-4( impo)-4(r)-5(t)-1(an)-4(ce)-4( o)-4(f)-1( h)-4(i)-2(gh)-4( r)-5(e)-4(so)-4(lu)-4(tion clima)-4(t)-1(e)-10( )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.3756 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(scenarios for impacts and ada)5(ptation)5( studies )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.1118 Tw T* [(remai)6(n)-1(s to b)5(e)-1( tho)5(r)-3(oug)5(hly )6(explore)5(d)-1( in)5( B)8(r)-3(azil an)5(d )]TJ 0.8303 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(South America. High resolution s)9(c)3(enarios)9( )]TJ 0.2555 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(develop)5(ed from regio)5(nal )6(climate mod)5(e)-1(l results)9( )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.07 Tw T* [(have been a)5(pplied to imp)5(a)-1(cts assessments only )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.2977 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(in the )6(past f)8(ive years i)6(n)5( vario)5(u)-1(s pa)5(rts of the )]TJ 0.0005 Tc 0.0031 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(w)10(orld, as in North Amer)]TJ 0 Tc 0.0036 Tw 10.4551 0 Td [(ica )6(and Europe a)5(s)3( part of )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.2498 Tw -10.4551 -1.1497 Td [(internatio)5(nal )6(projects. M)6(o)-1(st of these activities )]TJ 0.2198 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(have linked t)8(o)-1( impleme)5(n)-1(tation of scenarios for )]TJ 0.8606 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(the UNFCC National )6(Communicati)6(ons on)5( )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 0.1415 Tw T* [(Climate Change at the c)9(ount)]TJ -0.0009 Tc 0.1422 Tw 13.2216 0 Td [(ry level. )6(In studies )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 0.1535 Tw -13.2216 -1.1437 Td [(so far, mainly concerning)5( agriculture and )-6(w)15(a)-1(ter )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 1.0939 Tw T* [(resou)5(r)-3(ces, significant differences)9( in the )]TJ 0.2855 Tw T* [(estimated impacts based on spatial resolution)5( )]TJ 0.0003 Tc 0.0093 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(are foun)6(d. Therefo)6(r)-2(e, there)6( is a need for regio)6(nal)7( )]TJ -0.0005 Tc -0.0019 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(climate change scenarios )6(in South America. )]TJ 0 Tc 0 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD ( )Tj 0 -1.1497 TD ( )Tj 0.0003 Tc 9 0 0 9 72 129.2003 Tm [(--------------------)7(--------------------)7(--------------------)7(------------ )]TJ 0 Tc 0.2155 Tw 0 -1.1467 TD [(* CP)7(T)-9(EC/INP)7(E. Rodov)-7(ia Dutra km. 40, 126300-000 )]TJ -0.0014 Tc 1.7969 Tw 0 -1.1533 TD [(Cach)-5(oeir)-8(a)1( )-7(Paul)-6(ista, Sao Pa)-5(ulo,)-10( Brazil,)-10( )]TJ 0 0 1 scn -0.0006 Tc 0 Tw 0 -1.1467 TD [(marengo@c)-7(p)2(tec.inpe.br)]TJ ET 72 97.22 96.12 -0.66 re f 0 0 0 scn BT /TT11 1 Tf 0 Tc 9 0 0 9 168.12 98.1803 Tm ( )Tj -0.0009 Tc 0.0697 Tw -10.68 -1.1533 Td [(*)-5(*)2( IAG/USP, Dept. Ci\352nc)-8(ias )-7(Atmosf\351ricas, S\343o Pau)-5(l)1(o,)-10( )]TJ -0.0013 Tc 0 Tw T* (Brazil )Tj /TT10 1 Tf -0.0008 Tc -0.0016 Tw 10.02 0 0 10.02 306.54 634.1603 Tm [(Regional Modeling Strate)5(gy )]TJ 0 Tc 0 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD ( )Tj /TT11 1 Tf -0.0005 Tc 0.2556 Tw 0 -1.1377 TD [(This section )-6(presents an )6(overall discu)5(ssion of )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.7348 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(the pri)6(n)-1(ciple)5(s)2(, objectives and )6(assumptions )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 0.914 Tw T* [(unde)5(rlying t)8(he different)8( techniqu)5(es today )]TJ 0.3331 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(available)5( for de)5(riving )6(re)5(gional)6( climate chan)5(ge)5( )]TJ -0.0003 Tc 0.956 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(informatio)5(n. The )6(h)5(o)-1(rizontal )6(atmosphe)5(ric )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.5732 Tw T* [(resolution )6(of prese)5(n)-1(t d)5(a)-1(y AOGCMs is still )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 0.1176 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(relatively coa)5(r)-2(se, ord)5(e)-1(r of )6(300 km, and)5( )6(regio)5(nal )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.7645 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(climate is )-6(often affected by forcing an)5(d)5( )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.1658 Tw T* [(circulations that occur at )6(smaller scale)5(s \(Giorgi )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.022 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(and Me)5(arns )6(1991)5(\). As a result, AOGCMs cannot )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.3336 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(explicitly capture the)5( fine)5( scale structure th)5(at )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.0999 Tw T* [(characterizes)9( climatic variables in m)6(a)-1(n)5(y)3( regio)5(n)-1(s )]TJ 0.0003 Tc 0.0632 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(of the )-6(w)10(orld and that is neede)6(d for ma)6(ny impact )]TJ -0.0008 Tc 1.2739 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(assessment studies. Therefore)5(,)2( different )]TJ 0 Tc 1.4707 Tw T* [(''regi)7(onalizati)7(on" techni)7(ques have)5( been)5( )]TJ 0.2192 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(develop)5(ed to)5( enha)5(nce th)5(e regi)7(onal i)7(n)5(formation )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.5251 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(provide)5(d)-1( by)9( AGCMs and AOGCM)6(s)3( and to)-7( )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.1657 Tw T* [(provide fin)5(e)-1( )6(scale climate informatio)5(n. To date,)8( )]TJ -0.0006 Tc 0.1539 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(most impact )-6(studies have used climate change)5( )]TJ 0.2438 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD (information provided by)Tj -0.0005 Tc 0.2436 Tw 10.8623 0 Td [( equilibri)6(um A)8(G)-1(CMs or )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.0639 Tw -10.8623 -1.1437 Td [(coupled AO)5(G)5(C)3(M simulations )-6(w)9(ithout any further )]TJ -0.0006 Tc 0.6509 Tw T* [(regio)5(nalizatio)5(n processing. This is prima)5(r)-3(ily )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.7466 Tw T* [(because of)8( the ready availability of this )]TJ 0 Tc 1.4527 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(informatio)5(n)5( and th)5(e relativel)7(y)3( recent )]TJ -0.0003 Tc -0.0021 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(developm)6(ent of region)5(aliza)5(t)2(ion techniqu)5(es. )]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0.1774 Tw T* [(For som)7(e)-1( a)5(p)5(p)-1(lications, the re)5(gion)5(al inf)8(o)-1(rmatio)5(n )]TJ -0.0008 Tc 0.4056 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(provide)5(d)-1( by)8( AOGCMs may be sufficient, for)-9( )]TJ -0.0003 Tc 0.4889 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(example w)15(h)-7(en sub)5(-)-3(g)5(r)-3(id)5( scale vari)6(a)5(t)2(ions are )]TJ 0 Tc 0.1114 Tw T* [(w)10(eak or )-6(w)16(hen assessmen)5(ts are )6(global)7( )6(in scale. )]TJ -0.0008 Tc 0.0882 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(In fact, )-6(from the theoretical vie)-7(w)9( point, t)-4(he main )]TJ 0 Tc 1.0635 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(advantag)5(e of obtainin)5(g)-1( regi)7(onal)7( climate )]TJ -0.0006 Tc 0.7527 Tw T* [(informatio)5(n directly from AOGCMs is the )]TJ 0.1958 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(kno)-7(w)15(ledge that internal p)5(h)-1(ysical consistency is)-10( )]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0.1534 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(maintaine)5(d)-1(. The "a)5(dde)5(d value" )-6(p)5(r)-2(ovid)5(ed )-6(by )-6(th)5(e )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 0.0517 Tw T* [(regio)5(nalizatio)5(n techniques )6(depe)5(nd on th)5(e spatial )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.004 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(and temp)5(oral )6(scales of interest, as )-6(w)9(e)-1(ll as on the)-7( )]TJ 0.0001 Tc 0.0275 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(variables co)5(n)5(c)3(erned)5( an)5(d o)5(n)]TJ -0.0003 Tc 0.0279 Tw 12.3413 0 Td [( the climate)5( )6(statistics )]TJ 0.0009 Tc 0 Tw -12.3413 -1.1497 Td [(requi)8(re)6(d. )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.9983 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(What is commonly k)8(n)-1(o)-7(w)15(n as dynamic )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.022 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(do)-7(w)15(n)-1(scaling refers to as ne)5(sted RCM model into)5( )]TJ 0.9202 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(a AOGCM. The AO)5(GCM provi)6(de initial)6( )]TJ 0.0002 Tc 1.6621 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(conditions)9( and)6( time-d)6(epe)6(nde)6(nt lateral)7( )]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0.5965 Tw T* [(meteorologic)9(a)-1(l bo)5(und)5(ary)9( conditions)9( to d)5(r)-2(ive )]TJ -0.0006 Tc 0.4533 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(high-resolutio)5(n)-1( RCM )-6(simulations for selected )]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0.4947 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(time periods)9( of the global model run \(e.g. )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.064 Tw T* [(Dickinson et al. 198)5(9; Gio)5(r)3(gi 19)5(90\). 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Studies and an)5(al)6(yses of )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 1.2014 Tw T* [(climate change imp)5(a)5(c)3(t and adaptation )]TJ 0.0816 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(assessments recognize th)5(at there a)5(r)-2(e )6(a numb)5(e)5(r)4( )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.148 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(of sources of uncertainty in such studies )-6(w)15(h)-1(ich)-7( )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.0459 Tw T* [(contribute to)5( )6(uncertainty in)5( the final )6(assessment. )]TJ -0.003 Tc 0.6773 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(T)-3(h)-4(e)-4( impo)-4(r)-5(t)-1(an)-4(ce)-4( o)-4(f)-1( h)-4(i)-2(gh)-4( r)-5(e)-4(so)-4(lu)-4(tion clima)-4(t)-1(e)-10( )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.3756 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(scenarios for impacts and ada)5(ptation)5( studies )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.1118 Tw T* [(remai)6(n)-1(s to b)5(e)-1( tho)5(r)-3(oug)5(hly )6(explore)5(d)-1( in)5( B)8(r)-3(azil an)5(d )]TJ 0.8303 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(South America. High resolution s)9(c)3(enarios)9( )]TJ 0.2555 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(develop)5(ed from regio)5(nal )6(climate mod)5(e)-1(l results)9( )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.07 Tw T* [(have been a)5(pplied to imp)5(a)-1(cts assessments only )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.2977 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(in the )6(past f)8(ive years i)6(n)5( vario)5(u)-1(s pa)5(rts of the )]TJ 0.0005 Tc 0.0031 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(w)10(orld, as in North Amer)]TJ 0 Tc 0.0036 Tw 10.4551 0 Td [(ica )6(and Europe a)5(s)3( part of )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.2498 Tw -10.4551 -1.1497 Td [(internatio)5(nal )6(projects. M)6(o)-1(st of these activities )]TJ 0.2198 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(have linked t)8(o)-1( impleme)5(n)-1(tation of scenarios for )]TJ 0.8606 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(the UNFCC National )6(Communicati)6(ons on)5( )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 0.1415 Tw T* [(Climate Change at the c)9(ount)]TJ -0.0009 Tc 0.1422 Tw 13.2216 0 Td [(ry level. )6(In studies )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 0.1535 Tw -13.2216 -1.1437 Td [(so far, mainly concerning)5( agriculture and )-6(w)15(a)-1(ter )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 1.0939 Tw T* [(resou)5(r)-3(ces, significant differences)9( in the )]TJ 0.2855 Tw T* [(estimated impacts based on spatial resolution)5( )]TJ 0.0003 Tc 0.0093 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(are foun)6(d. Therefo)6(r)-2(e, there)6( is a need for regio)6(nal)7( )]TJ -0.0005 Tc -0.0019 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(climate change scenarios )6(in South America. )]TJ 0 Tc 0 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD ( )Tj 0 -1.1497 TD ( )Tj 0.0003 Tc 9 0 0 9 72 129.2003 Tm [(--------------------)7(--------------------)7(--------------------)7(------------ )]TJ 0 Tc 0.2155 Tw 0 -1.1467 TD [(* CP)7(T)-9(EC/INP)7(E. Rodov)-7(ia Dutra km. 40, 126300-000 )]TJ -0.0014 Tc 1.7969 Tw 0 -1.1533 TD [(Cach)-5(oeir)-8(a)1( )-7(Paul)-6(ista, Sao Pa)-5(ulo,)-10( Brazil,)-10( )]TJ 0 0 1 scn -0.0006 Tc 0 Tw 0 -1.1467 TD [(marengo@c)-7(p)2(tec.inpe.br)]TJ ET 72 97.22 96.12 -0.66 re f 0 0 0 scn BT /TT17 1 Tf 0 Tc 9 0 0 9 168.12 98.1803 Tm ( )Tj -0.0009 Tc 0.0697 Tw -10.68 -1.1533 Td [(*)-5(*)2( IAG/USP, Dept. Ci\352nc)-8(ias )-7(Atmosf\351ricas, S\343o Pau)-5(l)1(o,)-10( )]TJ -0.0013 Tc 0 Tw T* (Brazil )Tj /TT16 1 Tf -0.0008 Tc -0.0016 Tw 10.02 0 0 10.02 306.54 634.1603 Tm [(Regional Modeling Strate)5(gy )]TJ 0 Tc 0 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD ( )Tj /TT17 1 Tf -0.0005 Tc 0.2556 Tw 0 -1.1377 TD [(This section )-6(presents an )6(overall discu)5(ssion of )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.7348 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(the pri)6(n)-1(ciple)5(s)2(, objectives and )6(assumptions )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 0.914 Tw T* [(unde)5(rlying t)8(he different)8( techniqu)5(es today )]TJ 0.3331 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(available)5( for de)5(riving )6(re)5(gional)6( climate chan)5(ge)5( )]TJ -0.0003 Tc 0.956 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(informatio)5(n. The )6(h)5(o)-1(rizontal )6(atmosphe)5(ric )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.5732 Tw T* [(resolution )6(of prese)5(n)-1(t d)5(a)-1(y AOGCMs is still )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 0.1176 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(relatively coa)5(r)-2(se, ord)5(e)-1(r of )6(300 km, and)5( )6(regio)5(nal )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.7645 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(climate is )-6(often affected by forcing an)5(d)5( )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.1658 Tw T* [(circulations that occur at )6(smaller scale)5(s \(Giorgi )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.022 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(and Me)5(arns )6(1991)5(\). As a result, AOGCMs cannot )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.3336 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(explicitly capture the)5( fine)5( scale structure th)5(at )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.0999 Tw T* [(characterizes)9( climatic variables in m)6(a)-1(n)5(y)3( regio)5(n)-1(s )]TJ 0.0003 Tc 0.0632 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(of the )-6(w)10(orld and that is neede)6(d for ma)6(ny impact )]TJ -0.0008 Tc 1.2739 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(assessment studies. Therefore)5(,)2( different )]TJ 0 Tc 1.4707 Tw T* [(''regi)7(onalizati)7(on" techni)7(ques have)5( been)5( )]TJ 0.2192 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(develop)5(ed to)5( enha)5(nce th)5(e regi)7(onal i)7(n)5(formation )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.5251 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(provide)5(d)-1( by)9( AGCMs and AOGCM)6(s)3( and to)-7( )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.1657 Tw T* [(provide fin)5(e)-1( )6(scale climate informatio)5(n. To date,)8( )]TJ -0.0006 Tc 0.1539 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(most impact )-6(studies have used climate change)5( )]TJ 0.2438 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD (information provided by)Tj -0.0005 Tc 0.2436 Tw 10.8623 0 Td [( equilibri)6(um A)8(G)-1(CMs or )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.0639 Tw -10.8623 -1.1437 Td [(coupled AO)5(G)5(C)3(M simulations )-6(w)9(ithout any further )]TJ -0.0006 Tc 0.6509 Tw T* [(regio)5(nalizatio)5(n processing. This is prima)5(r)-3(ily )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.7466 Tw T* [(because of)8( the ready availability of this )]TJ 0 Tc 1.4527 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(informatio)5(n)5( and th)5(e relativel)7(y)3( recent )]TJ -0.0003 Tc -0.0021 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(developm)6(ent of region)5(aliza)5(t)2(ion techniqu)5(es. )]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0.1774 Tw T* [(For som)7(e)-1( a)5(p)5(p)-1(lications, the re)5(gion)5(al inf)8(o)-1(rmatio)5(n )]TJ -0.0008 Tc 0.4056 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(provide)5(d)-1( by)8( AOGCMs may be sufficient, for)-9( )]TJ -0.0003 Tc 0.4889 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(example w)15(h)-7(en sub)5(-)-3(g)5(r)-3(id)5( scale vari)6(a)5(t)2(ions are )]TJ 0 Tc 0.1114 Tw T* [(w)10(eak or )-6(w)16(hen assessmen)5(ts are )6(global)7( )6(in scale. )]TJ -0.0008 Tc 0.0882 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(In fact, )-6(from the theoretical vie)-7(w)9( point, t)-4(he main )]TJ 0 Tc 1.0635 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(advantag)5(e of obtainin)5(g)-1( regi)7(onal)7( climate )]TJ -0.0006 Tc 0.7527 Tw T* [(informatio)5(n directly from AOGCMs is the )]TJ 0.1958 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(kno)-7(w)15(ledge that internal p)5(h)-1(ysical consistency is)-10( )]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0.1534 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(maintaine)5(d)-1(. The "a)5(dde)5(d value" )-6(p)5(r)-2(ovid)5(ed )-6(by )-6(th)5(e )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 0.0517 Tw T* [(regio)5(nalizatio)5(n techniques )6(depe)5(nd on th)5(e spatial )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.004 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(and temp)5(oral )6(scales of interest, as )-6(w)9(e)-1(ll as on the)-7( )]TJ 0.0001 Tc 0.0275 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(variables co)5(n)5(c)3(erned)5( an)5(d o)5(n)]TJ -0.0003 Tc 0.0279 Tw 12.3413 0 Td [( the climate)5( )6(statistics )]TJ 0.0009 Tc 0 Tw -12.3413 -1.1497 Td [(requi)8(re)6(d. )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.9983 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(What is commonly k)8(n)-1(o)-7(w)15(n as dynamic )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.022 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(do)-7(w)15(n)-1(scaling refers to as ne)5(sted RCM model into)5( )]TJ 0.9202 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(a AOGCM. The AO)5(GCM provi)6(de initial)6( )]TJ 0.0002 Tc 1.6621 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(conditions)9( and)6( time-d)6(epe)6(nde)6(nt lateral)7( )]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0.5965 Tw T* [(meteorologic)9(a)-1(l bo)5(und)5(ary)9( conditions)9( to d)5(r)-2(ive )]TJ -0.0006 Tc 0.4533 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(high-resolutio)5(n)-1( RCM )-6(simulations for selected )]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0.4947 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(time periods)9( of the global model run \(e.g. )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.064 Tw T* [(Dickinson et al. 198)5(9; Gio)5(r)3(gi 19)5(90\). S)8(e)-1(a)5( surface )]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0.1774 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(temperature)5( )6(\(SST\), sea ic)9(e, gre)5(enh)5(ous)9(e gases )]TJ 0 g /RelativeColorimetric ri ET /GS23 gs BT /T1_13 1 Tf 0 Tc 0 Tw 10 0 0 10 290 28.3465 Tm 0 0.218 TD (291)Tj ET endstream endobj 148 0 obj 10722 endobj 149 0 obj << /Type /ExtGState /TR2 /Default /CA 1 /ca 1 /SA false >> endobj 150 0 obj << /Length 151 0 R >> stream /CS12 cs 0 0 0 scn 1 i /RelativeColorimetric ri /GS24 gs BT /TT18 1 Tf 10.02 0 0 10.02 72 38.4203 Tm ( )Tj /T1_14 1 Tf -0.0008 Tc -0.0016 Tw 4.7387 72.0778 Td (USE OF REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS IN IMPACTS ASSESSMENTS AND)Tj -0.0003 Tc -0.0021 Tw -2.3151 -1.1497 Td (ADAPTATIONS STUDIES FROM CONTINENTAL TO REGIONAL AND LOCAL SCALES)Tj /TT19 1 Tf 0 Tc 0 Tw 20.0974 -1.1437 Td ( )Tj /T1_15 1 Tf -0.0008 Tc -0.0016 Tw -19.0962 -1.1497 Td (The CREAS)Tj 0.0044 Tw ( )Tj -0.0016 Tw (\(Regional Climate Chan)Tj -0.0061 Tc (g)Tj -0.0008 Tc (e)Tj -0.0001 Tw ( )Tj -0.0016 Tw (Scenari)Tj 0.0007 Tc (o)Tj -0.0001 Tc -0.0083 Tw (s )Tj -0.0023 Tw (for South )Tj -0.0096 Tc (A)Tj -0.0029 Tc (m)Tj -0.0001 Tc (erica\) init)Tj -0.0084 Tc (i)Tj -0.0001 Tc (at)Tj 0.0096 Tc (i)Tj -0.0232 Tc (v)Tj -0.0001 Tc (e in)Tj 0.0037 Tw ( )Tj -0.0023 Tw (South )Tj -0.0008 Tc 0 Tw 17.1261 -1.1497 Td (America )Tj /TT18 1 Tf 0 Tc 1.9701 -1.1257 Td ( )Tj 0 -1.1497 TD ( )Tj /TT19 1 Tf -0.0009 Tc -0.0015 Tw -6.7964 -1.1677 Td (J. A. Marengo*, T. Ambrizzi** )Tj 0 Tc 0 Tw 6.7964 -1.1437 Td ( )Tj T* ( )Tj /TT20 1 Tf -18.9281 -1.1437 Td ( )Tj /TT19 1 Tf -0.0001 Tc -3.5928 -1.1497 Td [(Introduc)5(tion)6( )]TJ /TT20 1 Tf 0 Tc 0 -1.1437 TD ( )Tj -0.0005 Tc 0.4293 Tw T* [(Regional Climate Model)6(s \(RCMs\) a)-7(r)-3(e useful)6( )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 0.5727 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(tools for generatin)5(g hig)5(h)-1( resolution)5( climate )]TJ -0.0003 Tc 0.0458 Tw T* [(change scen)5(a)-1(rios for use )6(in climate impacts and)5( )]TJ 0.1058 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(adaptatio)5(n studies. Coupl)6(ed Atmosphe)5(re-Ocean )]TJ 0.5968 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(Global Clim)6(ate Models)9( \(AOGCMs\) are the )]TJ -0.0001 Tc 0.1953 Tw T* [(modelin)5(g too)5(l)1(s traditionall)7(y)3( used for generating )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.7586 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(climate change projections and scenarios.)8( )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.2076 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(Ho)-7(w)15(e)-1(ver, the horizo)5(n)-1(tal at)8(mosphe)5(ric re)5(solution )]TJ -0.0012 Tc 0.0407 Tw T* (of present day AOGCMs is still relatively coarse, )Tj -0.0002 Tc 0.2074 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(orde)5(r of )6(300)5( km, and re)5(gional climat)8(e is often )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.0699 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(affected by forcing a)5(nd ci)6(rculations tha)5(t)2( occur at )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.3217 Tw T* (smaller scales. As a result, AOGCMs cannot )Tj 0.3336 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(explicitly capture the)5( fine)5( scale structure th)5(at )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.0999 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(characterizes)9( climatic variables in m)6(a)-1(n)5(y)3( regio)5(n)-1(s )]TJ 0.0003 Tc 0.0632 Tw T* [(of the )-6(w)10(orld and that is neede)6(d for ma)6(ny impact )]TJ -0.0009 Tc -0.0015 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD (assessment studies.)Tj /TT19 1 Tf 0 Tc 0 Tw 9.0419 0 Td ( )Tj /TT20 1 Tf -0.0003 Tc 0.1656 Tw -9.0419 -1.1497 Td [(The issue of)8( the spatial resolution in )6(scenarios)9( )]TJ 0.0759 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(must be put i)6(n)-1( the contex)]TJ 11.5329 0 Td [(t)8( of other unc)9(ertainties )]TJ 0.441 Tw -11.5329 -1.1437 Td [(of climate chang)5(e. Studies and an)5(al)6(yses of )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 1.2014 Tw T* [(climate change imp)5(a)5(c)3(t and adaptation )]TJ 0.0816 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(assessments recognize th)5(at there a)5(r)-2(e )6(a numb)5(e)5(r)4( )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.148 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(of sources of uncertainty in such studies )-6(w)15(h)-1(ich)-7( )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.0459 Tw T* [(contribute to)5( )6(uncertainty in)5( the final )6(assessment. )]TJ -0.003 Tc 0.6773 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(T)-3(h)-4(e)-4( impo)-4(r)-5(t)-1(an)-4(ce)-4( o)-4(f)-1( h)-4(i)-2(gh)-4( r)-5(e)-4(so)-4(lu)-4(tion clima)-4(t)-1(e)-10( )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.3756 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(scenarios for impacts and ada)5(ptation)5( studies )]TJ -0.0004 Tc 0.1118 Tw T* [(remai)6(n)-1(s to b)5(e)-1( tho)5(r)-3(oug)5(hly )6(explore)5(d)-1( in)5( B)8(r)-3(azil an)5(d )]TJ 0.8303 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(South America. High resolution s)9(c)3(enarios)9( )]TJ 0.2555 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(develop)5(ed from regio)5(nal )6(climate mod)5(e)-1(l results)9( )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 0.07 Tw T* [(have been a)5(pplied to imp)5(a)-1(cts assessments only )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.2977 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(in the )6(past f)8(ive years i)6(n)5( vario)5(u)-1(s pa)5(rts of the )]TJ 0.0005 Tc 0.0031 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(w)10(orld, as in North Amer)]TJ 0 Tc 0.0036 Tw 10.4551 0 Td [(ica )6(and Europe a)5(s)3( part of )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.2498 Tw -10.4551 -1.1497 Td [(internatio)5(nal )6(projects. M)6(o)-1(st of these activities )]TJ 0.2198 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(have linked t)8(o)-1( impleme)5(n)-1(tation of scenarios for )]TJ 0.8606 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(the UNFCC National )6(Communicati)6(ons on)5( )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 0.1415 Tw T* [(Climate Change at the c)9(ount)]TJ -0.0009 Tc 0.1422 Tw 13.2216 0 Td [(ry level. )6(In studies )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 0.1535 Tw -13.2216 -1.1437 Td [(so far, mainly concerning)5( agriculture and )-6(w)15(a)-1(ter )]TJ -0.0005 Tc 1.0939 Tw T* [(resou)5(r)-3(ces, significant differences)9( in the )]TJ 0.2855 Tw T* [(estimated impacts based on spatial resolution)5( )]TJ 0.0003 Tc 0.0093 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(are foun)6(d. Therefo)6(r)-2(e, there)6( is a need for regio)6(nal)7( )]TJ -0.0005 Tc -0.0019 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(climate change scenarios )6(in South America. )]TJ 0 Tc 0 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD ( )Tj 0 -1.1497 TD ( )Tj 0.0003 Tc 9 0 0 9 72 129.2003 Tm [(--------------------)7(--------------------)7(--------------------)7(------------ )]TJ 0 Tc 0.2155 Tw 0 -1.1467 TD [(* CP)7(T)-9(EC/INP)7(E. Rodov)-7(ia Dutra km. 40, 126300-000 )]TJ -0.0014 Tc 1.7969 Tw 0 -1.1533 TD [(Cach)-5(oeir)-8(a)1( )-7(Paul)-6(ista, Sao Pa)-5(ulo,)-10( Brazil,)-10( )]TJ 0 0 1 scn -0.0006 Tc 0 Tw 0 -1.1467 TD [(marengo@c)-7(p)2(tec.inpe.br)]TJ ET 72 97.22 96.12 -0.66 re f 0 0 0 scn BT /TT20 1 Tf 0 Tc 9 0 0 9 168.12 98.1803 Tm ( )Tj -0.0009 Tc 0.0697 Tw -10.68 -1.1533 Td [(*)-5(*)2( IAG/USP, Dept. Ci\352nc)-8(ias )-7(Atmosf\351ricas, S\343o Pau)-5(l)1(o,)-10( )]TJ -0.0013 Tc 0 Tw T* (Brazil )Tj /TT19 1 Tf -0.0008 Tc -0.0016 Tw 10.02 0 0 10.02 306.54 634.1603 Tm [(Regional Modeling Strate)5(gy )]TJ 0 Tc 0 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD ( )Tj /TT20 1 Tf -0.0005 Tc 0.2556 Tw 0 -1.1377 TD [(This section )-6(presents an )6(overall discu)5(ssion of )]TJ -0.0007 Tc 0.7348 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(the pri)6(n)-1(ciple)5(s)2(, objectives and )6(assumptions )]TJ -0.0002 Tc 0.914 Tw T* [(unde)5(rlying t)8(he different)8( techniqu)5(es today )]TJ 0.3331 Tw 0 -1.1437 TD [(available)5( for de)5(riving )6(re)5(gional)6( climate chan)5(ge)5( )]TJ -0.0003 Tc 0.956 Tw 0 -1.1497 TD [(informatio)5(n. 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